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Catching the tail: Empirical identification of the distribution of the value of travel time

机译：捉住尾巴：根据经验确定出行时间值

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摘要

Recent methodological advances in discrete choice analysis in combination with certain stated choice experiments have allowed researchers to check empirically the identification of the distribution of latent variables such as the value of travel time (VTT). Lack of identification is likely to be common and the consequences are severe. E.g., the Danish value of time study found the 15% right tail of the VTT distribution to be unidentified, making it impossible to estimate the mean VTT without resorting to strong assumptions with equally strong impact on the resulting estimate. This paper analyses data generated from a similar choice experiment undertaken in Sweden during 2007-2008 in which the range of tradeoff values between time and money was significantly increased relative to the Danish experiment. The results show that this change allowed empirical identification of effectively the entire VTT distribution. In addition to informing the design of future choice experiments, the results are also of interest as a validity test of the stated choice methodology. Failure in identifying the right tail of the VTT would have made it difficult to maintain that respondents' behaviour is consistent with utility maximisation in the sense intended by the experimenter.
机译：离散选择分析的最新方法学进展与某些确定的选择实验相结合，使研究人员可以凭经验检查潜变量分布的识别，例如行驶时间（VTT）的值。缺乏身份识别很常见，后果很严重。例如，丹麦时间价值研究发现VTT分布的15％右尾部是不确定的，因此，如果不求助于对结果估算值具有同样强烈影响的强大假设，就无法估算平均VTT。本文分析了从2007年至2008年在瑞典进行的类似选择实验产生的数据，相对于丹麦实验，时间和金钱之间的权衡值范围显着增加。结果表明，这种变化可以有效地经验识别整个VTT分布。除了为将来的选择实验提供设计信息外，结果也很有趣，可以作为所述选择方法的有效性测试。如果未能确定VTT的右尾，将很难确保受访者的行为与实验者所期望的效用最大化相一致。

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