Lots of exogenous the most transit assignment time and passenger waiting factors make travel time uncertainty for public transit, while models didn＇t consider the flexibility of the vehicletravel time. In this paper, the above factors both of certainty and uncertainty were concerned . It was assumed that passengers selected travel strategies based on the travel costs and travel costs reliability of the transit routes. Finally, the transit equilibrium assignment with the travel time uncertainty and the corresponding solution algorithm were presented. The result of a case showed that transfer increased the uncertainty of travel time. Therefore, passengers were more inclined to take the direct line.%很多外在因素致使公交出行时间具有高度的不确定性，而已有的公交配流模型对公交车辆运行时间和乘客等车时间的不确定性缺乏考虑．本文综合考虑公交出行时问和出行时间的不确定性，结合公交出行时间与公交出行时间可靠性以描述乘客的路径选择行为，建立公交乘客均衡配流模型并求解分析。案例结果表明换乘线路增加了出行时间的不确定性，人们更愿意乘坐直达线路。
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