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Bus probe based urban travel time prediction.

机译：基于公交车探测的城市出行时间预测。

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摘要

This dissertation seeks to utilize transit buses equipped with a real-time automatic vehicle location (AVL) system as probes to detect non-transit vehicle traffic conditions on signalized urban streets. The explored real-time AVL system sends bus point speed, location, time stamp and other information to the control center about every 30 seconds, which differentiates this dissertation from past bus probe studies that applied bus data from archived AVL systems that cannot transmit bus travel information to a central computer in a real-time fashion.;Based on field real-time AVL bus data and a VISSIM-simulated test bed, this study demonstrates the bus probe concept and further develops a general methodological framework for real-time urban arterial travel time estimation and prediction. The logical framework consists of three steps: quantifying the relationships between bus and car speeds, updating their speed profiles based on newly incoming stream of bus speed reports, and forecasting future car travel times. The first step is most critical as it is the basis of the entire study. Exploratory analyses of the real-time AVL data and the test vehicle data are presented first, followed by the statistical models including multiple linear regressions, seemly unrelated regressions and multivariate state space models. The results have confirmed that there exist significant relationships between bus travel and general vehicle travel and reasonable non-transit vehicle travel times can be estimated. The second and third steps involve a Bayesian updating and a multivariate time series forecasting algorithm respectively. The results have shown it is possible to use new incoming bus speeds and forecasted bus speeds to derive reasonable concurrent non-transit vehicle travel times via the relationships identified in the first step.;The current study focuses on the feasibility, framework and algorithms in utilizing buses as probes. Further studies that focus on on-line data processing and broadcasting are needed before the idea of using bus probes becomes fully operationable.
机译：本文试图利用装备有实时自动车辆定位系统（AVL）的公交车作为探测信号化城市街道上非公交车辆交通状况的探针。探索的实时AVL系统大约每30秒向控制中心发送一次公交点速度，位置，时间戳和其他信息，这与以往的公交探查研究有所不同，以往的公交探查研究应用了无法传输公交行程的已归档AVL系统的公交数据将信息实时传输到中央计算机。基于现场实时AVL总线数据和VISSIM模拟测试台，本研究演示了总线探针的概念，并进一步开发了用于实时城市动脉的通用方法框架行程时间估计和预测。逻辑框架包括三个步骤：量化公交车和汽车速度之间的关系，根据新收到的公交车速度报告流更新其速度曲线，并预测未来的汽车行驶时间。第一步至关重要，因为它是整个研究的基础。首先介绍了实时AVL数据和测试车辆数据的探索性分析，然后是统计模型，包括多元线性回归，看似无关的回归和多元状态空间模型。结果证实，巴士出行与普通车辆出行之间存在显着关系，可以估计合理的非过境车辆出行时间。第二步和第三步分别涉及贝叶斯更新和多元时间序列预测算法。结果表明，可以通过第一步中确定的关系使用新的传入公交车速度和预测公交车速度来得出合理的并发非公交车辆行驶时间。;当前的研究重点是在利用中的可行性，框架和算法总线作为探针。在使用总线探针的想法完全可操作之前，需要对在线数据处理和广播进行进一步的研究。

著录项

  • 作者

    Pu, Wenjing.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Illinois at Chicago.;

  • 授予单位 University of Illinois at Chicago.;
  • 学科 Engineering Civil.;Engineering Electronics and Electrical.;Transportation.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2008
  • 页码 185 p.
  • 总页数 185
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 建筑科学;无线电电子学、电信技术;综合运输;
  • 关键词

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