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Probabilistic assessment of aviation CO_2 emission targets

机译：航空CO_2排放目标的概率评估

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Passenger demand for air transportation is expected to continue growing into the future. The increase in operations will undoubtedly lead to an escalation in harmful carbon dioxide emissions, an adverse effect that governing bodies have been striving to mitigate. The International Air Transport Association has set aggressive environmental targets for the global aviation industry. This paper investigates the achievability of those targets in the US using a top-down partial equilibrium model of the aviation system complemented with a previously developed fleet turnover procedure. Three 'enablers' are considered: aircraft technologies, operational improvements and sustainable biofuels. To account for sources of uncertainty, Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to run a multitude of scenarios. It was found that the likelihood of meeting all targets is extremely low (0.3%) for the expected demand growth rates in the US. Results show that biofuels have the most impact on system CO2 emissions, responsible for an average 64% of the total savings by 2050 (with aircraft technologies and operational improvements responsible for 31% and 5%, respectively). However, this impact is associated with high uncertainty and very dependent on both biofuel type and availability.
机译：旅客对航空运输的需求有望在未来继续增长。毫无疑问，业务量的增加将导致有害二氧化碳排放量的增加，这是理事机构一直在努力减轻的不利影响。国际航空运输协会为全球航空业设定了积极的环境目标。本文使用航空系统的自上而下的局部均衡模型以及先前开发的机队更替程序，对美国这些目标的可实现性进行了研究。考虑了三个“推动因素”：飞机技术，运营改进和可持续生物燃料。为了考虑不确定性的来源，进行了蒙特卡洛模拟以运行多种情况。研究发现，对于美国的预期需求增长率，实现所有目标的可能性极低（0.3％）。结果表明，生物燃料对系统CO2排放的影响最大，到2050年平均占总节约量的64％（飞机技术和运营改进分别占31％和5％）。但是，这种影响与高度不确定性相关，并且非常取决于生物燃料的类型和可用性。

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