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Assessing the energy and greenhouse gas emissions mitigation effectiveness of potential US modal freight policies

机译：评估潜在的美国模式货运政策缓解能源和温室气体排放的有效性

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This paper estimates the total embodied energy and emissions modal freight requirements across the supply chain for each of over 400 sectors using Bureau of Transportation Statis tics Commodity Flow Survey data and Bureau of Economic Analysis economic input-output tables for 2002. Across all sectors, direct domestic truck and rail transportation are similar in magnitude for embodied freight transportation of goods and services in terms of ton-km. However, the sectors differ significantly in energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, and costs per ton-km. Recent pressure to reduce energy consumption and emissions has motivated a search for more efficient freight mode choices. One solution would be to shift freight transportation away from modes that require more energy and emit more (e.g., truck) to modes that consume and emit less (e.g., rail and water). Our results show there are no individual sectors for which targeting changes would sig nificantly decrease the total freight transportation energy and emissions, therefore we have also looked at the prospect of policies encouraging many sectors to shift modes. There are four scenarios analyzed: (1) shifting all truck to rail, shifting top 20% sector mode choice, (2) based on their emissions, (3) based on a multi-attribute analysis, and (4) increasing truck efficiency (e.g., mpg). Increasing truck efficiency by 10% results in similar energy and emis sions reductions (approximately 7% for energy and 6% for emissions) as targeting the top 20% of sectors when selected based on emissions, whereas selecting the top 20% based on availability to shift from truck results in slightly less reductions of energy and emissions. Implementing policies to encourage higher efficiency in freight trucks may be a sufficient short term goal while efforts to reduce truck freight transportation through sectoral policies are implemented in the long term.
机译：本文使用运输统计局商品流量调查数据和经济分析局2002年的经济投入产出表，估算了400多个行业中每个行业在整个供应链中的总的能源和排放模式货运需求。在所有行业中，直接就货物和服务的实际货运而言，国内卡车和铁路运输在数量上相近，以吨公里计。但是，这些部门在能源消耗，温室气体排放和每吨公里的成本方面存在很大差异。最近减少能源消耗和排放的压力促使人们寻求更有效的货运模式选择。一种解决方案是将货运从需要更多能量和排放更多能量的模式（例如卡车）转变为消耗和排放更少的模式（例如铁路和水）。我们的结果表明，没有个别部门的目标变更会显着降低货运的总能源和排放，因此，我们也研究了鼓励许多部门转变模式的政策前景。分析了四种情况：（1）将所有卡车都转移到铁路上，将前20％的部门模式选择转移；（2）基于排放量，（3）基于多属性分析，以及（4）提高卡车效率（例如mpg）。将卡车效率提高10％会导致类似的能源和排放减少量（大约7％的能源减少和6％的排放），因为根据排放量选择了前20％的行业，而根据可用性选择了前20％从卡车上换档可以减少较少的能源和排放。实施鼓励货运卡车更高效率的政策可能是一个足够的短期目标，而长期实施通过部门性政策减少卡车货运的努力。

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