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Energy and environmental implications of NO_x emission reduction from the transport sector of Beijing: a least-cost planning analysis

机译：北京交通运输部门减少NO_x排放的能源和环境影响：最小成本规划分析

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摘要

This paper determines cost effective passenger transport technology and energy options at selected targets for nitrogen oxides emission reduction from the transport sector in Beijing, China during 2005-2020 using a long-term least cost vehicular mix model. It also examines the implications of the nitrogen oxides emission reduction targets (NERTs) for greenhouse gas and other local pollutant emissions. The study is limited to the passenger transportation in the city and does not consider freight transportation options. A key finding of this study is that the liquefied petroleum gas buses would replace diesel buses in Beijing at NERT of 10% while the shares of other transport options would remain unaffected. At higher NERT of 20-50%, hybrid cars and electric trolley buses would be cost effective. It is also found that total cost would increase only marginally (by less than 0.1%) up to the emission reduction target of 10% whereas it would increase by as high as 31.7% when the target is increased to 50%. Total energy requirement would not change much at lower values of NERT (e.g., 10%). However, it would decrease as the emission reduction target is set at 20% or higher.
机译：本文使用长期成本最低的车辆混合模型，确定了中国北京交通运输部门在2005-2020年间选定的氮氧化物减排目标，从而确定了具有成本效益的客运技术和能源选择。它还检查了氮氧化物减排目标（NERT）对温室气体和其他本地污染物排放的影响。该研究仅限于城市中的客运，并且没有考虑货运选择。这项研究的关键发现是，液化石油气公交车将以10％的NERT取代北京的柴油公交车，而其他交通方式的份额则不会受到影响。当NERT达到20-50％时，混合动力汽车和电动无轨电车将具有成本效益。还发现，总成本仅会小幅增加（不到0.1％），达到减排目标10％，而当目标提高到50％时，总成本将高达31.7％。在较低的NERT值（例如10％）下，总能量需求不会有太大变化。但是，当减排目标设定为20％或更高时，它会减少。

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