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首页> 外文学位 >Deep Reductions in Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the California Transportation Sector: Dynamics in Vehicle Fleet and Energy Supply Transitions to Achieve 80% Reduction in Emissions from 1990 Levels by 2050.
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Deep Reductions in Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the California Transportation Sector: Dynamics in Vehicle Fleet and Energy Supply Transitions to Achieve 80% Reduction in Emissions from 1990 Levels by 2050.

机译：加利福尼亚交通运输部门的温室气体排放量大幅减少：到2050年，车队和能源供应变化的动态将使1990年的排放量减少80％。

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摘要

California's "80in50" target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 80 percent below 1990 levels by the year 2050 is based on climate science rather than technical feasibility of mitigation. As such, it raises four fundamental questions: is this magnitude of reduction in greenhouse gas emissions possible, what energy system transitions over the next 40 years are necessary, can intermediate policy goals be met on the pathway toward 2050, and does the path of transition matter for the objective of climate change mitigation? Scenarios for meeting the 80in50 goal in the transportation sector are modelled. Specifically, earlier work defining low carbon transport scenarios for the year 2050 is refined by incorporating new information about biofuel supply. Then transition paths for meeting 80in50 scenarios are modelled for the light-duty vehicle sub-sector, with important implications for the timing of action, rate of change, and cumulative greenhouse gas emissions. One aspect of these transitions -- development in the California wind industry to supply low-carbon electricity for plug-in electric vehicles -- is examined in detail. In general, the range of feasible scenarios for meeting the 80in50 target is narrow enough that several common themes are apparent: electrification of light-duty vehicles must occur; continued improvements in vehicle efficiency must be applied to improving fuel economy; and energy carriers must de-carbonize to less than half of the carbon intensity of gasoline and diesel. Reaching the 80in50 goal will require broad success in travel demand reduction, fuel economy improvements and low-carbon fuel supply, since there is little opportunity to increase emission reductions in one area if we experience failure in another. Although six scenarios for meeting the 80in50 target are defined, only one also meets the intermediate target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2020. Furthermore, the transition path taken to reach any one of these scenarios can differ in cumulative emissions by more than 25 percent. Since cumulative emissions are the salient factor for climate change mitigation and the likelihood of success is an important consideration, initiating action immediately to begin the transitions indicated for achieving the 80in50 goal is found to be prudent.
机译：加利福尼亚州“到8050年”的目标是到2050年将温室气体排放量减少到1990年水平的80％，这是基于气候科学而非缓解的技术可行性。因此，它提出了四个基本问题：是否有可能在这种程度上减少温室气体排放？在未来40年内有必要进行什么能源系统转型？是否可以在2050年的道路上实现中间政策目标？对缓解气候变化的目标有什么影响？对实现交通运输部门80％50目标的方案进行了建模。具体而言，通过纳入有关生物燃料供应的新信息来完善定义2050年低碳运输情景的早期工作。然后，针对轻型汽车子行业模拟了满足80:50情景的过渡路径，这对行动时间，变化率和累积温室气体排放具有重要意义。详细研究了这些过渡的一个方面-加州风电行业的发展，以为插电式电动汽车提供低碳电力。总的来说，实现80年代50目标的可行方案范围非常狭窄，以至于几个共同的主题显而易见：轻型汽车必须实现电气化；车辆效率的持续提高必须用于改善燃油经济性；能源载体的脱碳量必须小于汽油和柴油的碳强度的一半。达到80分50的目标将需要在减少旅行需求，改善燃油经济性和低碳燃料供应方面取得广泛的成功，因为如果我们在另一个领域遇到失败，几乎没有机会提高一个领域的减排量。尽管定义了六种实现80％50目标的方案，但只有一种方案还达到了到2020年将温室气体排放量减少到1990年水平的中间目标。此外，达到这些方案中的任何一种所采用的过渡途径在累积排放量上可能有所不同。超过25％。由于累积排放量是缓解气候变化的重要因素，成功的可能性是一个重要的考虑因素，因此立即采取行动开始为实现80in50目标而进行的过渡是明智的。

著录项

  • 作者

    Leighty, Wayne Waterman.;

  • 作者单位

    University of California, Davis.;

  • 授予单位 University of California, Davis.;
  • 学科 Climate Change.;Energy.;Transportation.;Environmental Management.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2010
  • 页码 343 p.
  • 总页数 343
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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