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首页> 外文会议>SAE Convergence >Achieving an 80 GHG Reduction by 2050 in California's Passenger Vehicle Fleet: Implications for the ZEV Regulation
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Achieving an 80 GHG Reduction by 2050 in California's Passenger Vehicle Fleet: Implications for the ZEV Regulation

机译：在加利福尼亚州的乘用车舰队中达到2050年的80％GHG减少：对ZEV监管的影响

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In recognizing the potential for large, damaging impacts from climate change, California enacted Executive Order S-03-05, requiring a reduction in statewide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. Given that the transportation light-duty vehicle (LDV) segment accounts for 28% of the state's GHG emissions today, it will be difficult to meet the 2050 goal unless a portfolio of near-zero carbon transportation solutions is pursued. Because it takes decades for a new propulsion system to capture a large fraction of the passenger vehicle market due to vehicle fleet turn-over rates, it is important to accelerate the introduction of these alternatives to ensure markets enter into early commercial volumes (10,000s) between 2015 and 2020. This report summarizes the results and conclusions of a modeling exercise that simulated GHG emissions from the LDV sector to 2050 in California. Specifically, the analysis addressed two policy questions: (1) what fraction of the on-road fleet in 2050 needs to be zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) in order for the LDV sector to achieve an 80% GHG reduction, and (2) what annual ZEV sales are necessary between 2015 and 2025 to initiate these fleet volumes? Two scenarios were developed revealing how difficult it will be to achieve this goal. Scenario 1 achieves a 66% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050 using aggressive assumptions. This scenario assumes ZEV sales reach a quarter of a million units annually by 2025 and become 100% of new vehicle sales by 2050. Scenario 2 was developed to show what would be required to achieve the full 80% GHG goal. To achieve this, two key parameters were modified with more aggressive and less certain assumptions. A steeper ZEV sales projection was simulated that achieves half a million ZEVs annually by 2025 and becomes 100% of new vehicle sales by 2040. Additionally, the availability of biofuels was increased to 1.7 billion gallons gasoline equivalent (BGGE), where it was limited to 1 BGGE in Scenario 1.
机译：在承认从气候变化的大量破坏性影响的潜力颁布，加利福尼亚颁布了行政命令S-03-05，要求在2050年低于1990年水平以下80％的全态温室气体（GHG）排放量。鉴于运输宽勤车辆（LDV）分部占今天国家温室气体排放量的28％，除非追求近零碳运输解决方案的组合，否则难以满足2050个目标。由于新推进系统需要数十年来捕获由于车辆舰队转向率因车辆舰队转向率而大部分乘用车市场，因此加快引入这些替代方案的重要性，以确保市场进入早期商业量（10,000岁） 2015年至2020年之间。本报告总结了建模练习的结果和结论，将LDV部门的温室气体排放量模拟到加利福尼亚州2050年。具体而言，分析解决了两个策略问题：（1）2050年的道路上车队的一部分需要是零排放车辆（ZEVS），以便LDV部门达到80％的GHG减少，（2） 2015年和2025年在2015年和2025年之间是必需的每年的ZEV销售，以启动这些舰队卷？制定了两种情况，揭示了实现这一目标的困难。场景1使用攻击性假设将GHG排放量减少66％。这一情景假定ZEV销售额每年达到2025年达到一百万个单位，成为2050年的新车销量的100％。发展方案2是为了展示实现全额80％GHG目标所需的内容。为此，修改了两个关键参数，以更具侵略性和更少的假设来修改。模拟了一个陡峭的Zev销售投影，通过2025年每年实现半百万ZEV，并将100％的新车销量达到2040年。此外，生物燃料的可用性增加到17亿加仑汽油等效物（BGGE），其中限于情景1中的1 BGGE。

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