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Valuations of travel time variability in scheduling versus mean-variance models

机译：计划与均方差模型中旅行时间可变性的评估

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The standard method of estimating the value of travel time variability for use in policy appraisal is to estimate the parameters of a reduced-form utility function, where some measure of travel time variability (such as the standard deviation) is included. A problem with this approach is that the obtained valuation will in general depend on the standardized travel time distribution, and hence cannot be transferred from one context to another. A recently suggested remedy for this problem has been to estimate a scheduling model, which in theory is transferrable, and use the implied reduced-form to derive valuations for use in appraisal. In this paper we estimate both a scheduling model and the implied reduced-form model, using stated choice data. The valuation of travel time variability implied by the scheduling model turns out to be substantially smaller than what is obtained from a reduced-form model estimated on the same sample. The results suggest that the scheduling model does not capture all of the disutility arising from travel time variability. Hence, although it can be shown that scheduling and reduced-form models are theoretically equivalent, that hypothesized equivalence is not reflected in the empirical evidence. We speculate that the derivation of reduced-form models from an underlying scheduling model omits two essential features: first, the notion of an exogenously fixed "preferred arrival time" neglects the fact that most activities can be rescheduled given full information about the travel times in advance, and second, disutility may be derived from uncertainty as such, in the form of anxiety, decisions costs or costs for having contingency plans. We also report our estimates of the valuation of travel time variability for public transit trips, for use in applied appraisal.
机译：估计用于策略评估的旅行时间可变性的值的标准方法是估计简化形式的效用函数的参数，其中包括一些旅行时间可变性的度量（例如标准差）。这种方法的问题在于，获得的估价通常将取决于标准化的旅行时间分布，因此无法从一个环境转移到另一个环境。最近针对该问题建议的补救措施是估计一个调度模型，该模型理论上是可转移的，并使用隐式简化形式来得出用于评估的估值。在本文中，我们使用陈述的选择数据来估计调度模型和隐式简化形式模型。调度模型所隐含的旅行时间可变性的评估结果实际上比从对同一样本估计的简化形式模型获得的评估结果要小。结果表明，调度模型无法捕获由旅行时间可变性引起的所有无效性。因此，尽管可以证明调度和简化形式的模型在理论上是等效的，但假设的等效性并没有反映在经验证据中。我们推测，从基本调度模型派生的简化形式模型忽略了两个基本特征：首先，外生固定的“首选到达时间”这一概念忽略了这样一个事实，即只要给出有关旅行时间的完整信息，大多数活动都可以重新安排。第二，无用功可能来自不确定性，例如焦虑，决策成本或具有应急计划的成本。我们还报告了对公共交通出行时间变异性估值的估计，以用于应用评估。

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