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Economic analysis of alternative nutritional management of dual-purpose cow herds in central coastal Veracruz, Mexico

机译：墨西哥韦拉克鲁斯中部沿海地区两用牛群替代营养管理的经济分析

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Market information was combined with predicted input–output relationships in an economic analysis of alternative nutritional management for dual-purpose member herds of the Genesis farmer organization of central coastal Veracruz, Mexico. Cow productivity outcomes for typical management and alternative feeding scenarios were obtained from structured sets of simulations in a companion study of productivity limitations and potentials using the Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System model (Version 6.0). Partial budgeting methods and sensitivity analysis were used to identify economically viable alternatives based on expected change in milk income over feed cost (change in revenues from milk sales less change in feed costs). Herd owners in coastal Veracruz have large economic incentives, from $584 to $1,131 in predicted net margin, to increase milk sales by up to 74% across a three-lactation cow lifetime by improving diets based on good quality grass and legume forages. This increment is equal to, or exceeds, in value the total yield from at least one additional lactation per cow lifetime. Furthermore, marginal rates of return (change in milk income over feed costs divided by change in variable costs when alternative practices are used) of 3.3 ± 0.8 indicate clear economic incentives to remove fundamental productivity vulnerabilities due to chronic energy deficits and impeded growth of immature cows under typical management. Sensitivity analyses indicate that the economic outcomes are robust for a variety of market conditions.
机译：在墨西哥韦拉克鲁斯中部沿海地区Genesis农民组织的双重目的成员组织的替代营养管理的经济分析中，市场信息与预测的投入产出关系相结合。使用康奈尔净碳水化合物和蛋白质系统模型（6.0版），通过对生产率限制和潜力的伴随研究，从结构化的模拟组中获得了典型管理和替代喂养方案下的奶牛生产率结果。根据牛奶收入相对饲料成本的预期变化（牛奶销售收入变化减去饲料成本变化），使用了部分预算编制方法和敏感性分析来确定经济上可行的替代方案。韦拉克鲁斯州沿海地区的牧民拥有巨大的经济诱因，可通过改善基于优质草和豆类饲料的饮食，在三胎母牛的一生中，将牛奶销售收入提高74％，从预计的净利润从584美元增加到1,131美元。该增加值等于或超过每头母牛一生中至少一次额外泌乳产生的总产量。此外，边际收益率（牛奶收入相对饲料成本的变化除以采用替代方法时的可变成本的变化）为3.3±0.8，表明存在明显的经济诱因，可消除由于长期能源短缺和未成熟母牛生长受到阻碍而导致的基本生产力脆弱性在典型的管理之下。敏感性分析表明，在各种市场条件下，经济成果都是稳健的。

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