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Room for improvement: increasing the value of energy modeling for policy analysis

机译：改进空间：增加能源建模在政策分析中的价值

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There are expanding national discussions on a critical number of energy-related issues ranging from the importance of reducing air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions to enhancing the nation's energy security and moving towards a competitive electric utility industry. The complex interactions surrounding all of these issues have motivated the development of a relatively large number of energy-economic models to assist policy makers in the framing of appropriate policy directions. But how much do these models really inform the debate? The record of US model-based energy forecasting yields evidence that such models provide biased estimates that tend to reinforce the status quo, inadequately inform policy-makers about new market potential, and serve to constrain the development of innovative policies. This paper reviews some of the reasons for this conclusion and then explores the extent to which energy-economic models may reflect a more dynamic technological diffusion process that encourages new policy development.
机译：从减少空气污染和温室气体排放的重要性到增强国家的能源安全以及走向竞争性的电力公用事业等重要的能源相关问题，全国范围内的讨论越来越广泛。围绕所有这些问题的复杂相互作用促使了相对大量的能源经济模型的发展，以帮助决策者制定适当的政策方向。但是这些模型真正为辩论提供了多少信息？美国基于模型的能源预测的记录表明，此类模型提供了偏向估计，这些估计往往会增强现状，不足以向决策者提供有关新市场潜力的信息，并会限制创新政策的制定。本文回顾了得出该结论的一些原因，然后探讨了能源经济模型在多大程度上可以反映出鼓励新政策制定的更加动态的技术扩散过程。

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