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Quantitative option analysis for implementation and management of landfills

机译：填埋场实施和管理的量化选择分析

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The selection of the most feasible strategy for implementation of landfills is a challenging step. Potential implementation options of landfills cover a wide range, from conventional construction contracts to the concessions. Montenegro, seeking to improve the efficiency of the public services while maintaining affordability, was considering privatisation as a way to reduce public spending on service provision. In this study, to determine the most feasible model for construction and operation of a regional landfill, a quantitative risk analysis was implemented with four steps: (ⅰ) development of a global risk matrix; (ⅱ) assignment of qualitative probabilities of occurrences and magnitude of impacts; (ⅲ) determination of the risks to be mitigated, monitored, controlled or ignored; (ⅳ) reduction of the main risk elements; and (ⅴ) incorporation of quantitative estimates of probability of occurrence and expected impact for each risk element in the reduced risk matrix. The evaluated scenarios were: (ⅰ) construction and operation of the regional landfill by the public sector; (ⅱ) construction and operation of the landfill by private sector and transfer of the ownership to the public sector after a pre-defined period; and (ⅲ) operation of the landfill by the private sector, without ownership. The quantitative risk assessment concluded that introduction of a public private partnership is not the most feasible option, unlike the common belief in several public institutions in developing countries. A management contract for the first years of operation was advised to be implemented, after which, a long term operating contract may follow.
机译：选择最可行的填埋场策略是具有挑战性的一步。从传统的建筑合同到特许权，填埋场的潜在实施方案涵盖范围很广。黑山寻求提高公共服务的效率，同时保持可负担性，因此正在考虑将私有化作为减少公共服务支出的一种方式。在这项研究中，为了确定最可行的区域性垃圾填埋场的建设和运营模型，实施了定量风险分析，包括四个步骤：（ⅰ）建立全球风险矩阵； （ⅱ）确定发生的质量概率和影响的程度； （ⅲ）确定需要减轻，监测，控制或忽略的风险； （ⅳ）减少主要风险因素； （ⅴ）将减少风险矩阵中每个风险要素的发生概率和预期影响的定量估计值合并。评估的情景是：（ⅰ）公共部门建设和运营区域垃圾填埋场； （ⅱ）由私人机构建造及营办堆填区，并在一段既定期限后将拥有权移交给公共部门； （ⅲ）私人拥有的垃圾填埋场，没有所有权。定量风险评估得出的结论是，与发展中国家几个公共机构的普遍信念不同，引入公私合作伙伴关系不是最可行的选择。建议执行第一年的管理合同，此后，可能会遵循长期的经营合同。

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