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首页> 外文期刊>Water Policy >Stochastic analysis of rainfall and its application in appropriate planning and management for Eastern India agriculture
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Stochastic analysis of rainfall and its application in appropriate planning and management for Eastern India agriculture

机译：降雨的随机分析及其在印度东部农业适当规划和管理中的应用

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摘要

Rainfall analysis is essential for agricultural crop planning and water resources management, especially under water scarcity conditions. The 36 years (1977-2013) of rainfall data for Kharagpur were analyzed for characterization of different seasonal events. The Weibull's formula predicted the probability of mean onset on 23rd standard meteorological weeks (SMW) (3rd-9th June) and withdrawal on 43rd SMW (21st-27th October). There was 80-83% probability of a wet week [P(W)] occurring within 25th-35th SMW. The first order Markov chain process shows the conditional probability of one wet week preceded by another wet week [P(W/W)] varied between 0 and 86%; whereas, dry week preceded by another dry week [P(D/D)] varied in the range of 70 to 100%. The stochastic analysis of successive wet or dry weeks formulates the adaptation strategies to avoid the possible effect of wet or dry spell during cropping seasons. The wet spell analysis suggests rainwater harvesting to control soil erosion and maximization of water use efficiency. The probability of getting consecutive wet [P(W/W)] and dry days [P(D/D)] were varied in the range of 40%-70% and 50%-90%, respectively. The probability of getting different magnitude of rainfall (10 to 40 mm) during the monsoon weeks (25th-39th week) were found to be more than 50% probability level, which suggest for harvesting of excess runoff water for future supplemental irrigation.
机译：降雨分析对于农业作物计划和水资源管理至关重要，特别是在缺水条件下。分析了Kharagpur的36年（1977-2013）降雨数据，以表征不同的季节性事件。 Weibull公式预测了在第23个标准气象周（SMW）（6月3日至9日）平均发病和在第43个SMW（10月21日至27日）撤离的概率。在第25至35个SMW内发生湿周[P（W）]的可能性为80-83％。一阶马尔可夫链过程显示一个湿周的条件概率先于另一个湿周[P（W / W）]在0至86％之间变化；相反，在干燥周之前的另一个干燥周[P（D / D）]在70％至100％的范围内变化。对连续的湿润或干燥周的随机分析制定了适应策略，以避免在种植季节出现湿润或干燥季节的可能影响。湿拼法分析建议收集雨水以控制土壤侵蚀和最大程度地提高用水效率。连续潮湿[P（W / W）]和干燥天[P（D / D）]的概率分别在40％-70％和50％-90％的范围内变化。在季风周（第25-39周）期间，出现不同幅度的降雨（10至40 mm）的概率被发现大于50％的概率水平，这表明为将来的补充灌溉而收集了多余的径流水。

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