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Facing the challenge of extreme climate: the case of Metropolitan Sao Paulo

机译：面对极端气候的挑战：圣保罗大都市的案例

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摘要

Climate variability has always posed important challenges to water resources planners and engineers. Recent hydrologic data from different parts of the world show that the use of traditional stationary series statistical methods to assess risk and uncertainty may not produce reliable estimates. In particular, the 2014-2015 drought in Metropolitan Sao Paulo that was followed by major flooding in 2016 shows the intensification of climatic extremes in this part of Brazil. The probability of this drought event is only 0.004 when estimated with data available from 83 years of record, until 2013. Was the drought of 2014-2015 a statistical outlier or should one consider it as an event that can occur again along the planning horizon? The paper describes the hydrologic conditions that resulted in the most severe drought ever recorded and the structural and non-structural initiatives taken by water authorities to avoid social chaos in the Metropolitan Region of Sao Paulo (21 million inhabitants). Furthermore, it discusses how the drought affected the existing water resources development plan, especially the anticipation of investments in water security. Because financial resources are limited, other investments, equally important but less urgent, are being delayed.
机译：气候多变性一直对水资源规划师和工程师构成重大挑战。来自世界各地的最新水文数据表明，使用传统的平稳序列统计方法来评估风险和不确定性可能无法产生可靠的估计。特别是，圣保罗大都会2014-2015年的干旱以及2016年的特大洪灾表明，巴西这部分地区的极端气候加剧。如果使用从83年的记录到2013年的可用数据进行估计，则该干旱事件的可能性仅为0.004。2014-2015年的干旱是否是统计上的异常值，还是应该将其视为可以在计划范围内再次发生的事件？本文介绍了导致有记录以来最严重干旱的水文条件，以及水务部门采取的结构性和非结构性措施，以避免圣保罗大都市地区（2,100万居民）的社会混乱。此外，它讨论了干旱如何影响现有的水资源开发计划，尤其是对水安全投资的预期。由于财政资源有限，其他同样重要但不太紧迫的投资却被推迟了。

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