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Hydropower Reservoir Management Under Climate Change: The Karoon Reservoir System

机译：气候变化下的水电水库管理：Karoon水库系统

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摘要

This study assesses the performance of hydropower production by reservoirs with and without climate change impacts on river discharge. The case study of this research includes the Khersan 1, Karoon 4, and Karoon 3 reservoirs in Iran. The HADCM3 climate model with A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario is coupled with proportional downscaling to assess the impact of climate change on river discharge and reservoir hydropower production. The IHACRES rainfall- runoff model is implemented for calculating river discharge under climate-change conditions. Reservoir simulation and optimization models are implemented to calculate hydropower production in the base period (1986–2000), future period 1 (2025–2039), future period 2 (2055–2069), and future period 3 (2085–2099). The power production and performance criteria of the reservoirs are calculated using simulation (standard operating policy) and optimization models in the considered periods. Our results show that the largest reductions of reservoir discharge correspond, in decreasing order, to the future periods 3, 1, and 2, respectively. Moreover, the hydropower production obtained with the optimization model is found to be larger than that obtained with the simulation model. The calculated increase in power production in the base period and future periods 1, 2, and 3 is equal to 6, 19, 10, and 22 %, respectively. These results demonstrate the benefit of applying optimization modeling for hydropower production in the Khersan -Karoon reservoir system to mitigate and adapt to climate-change impacts on river discharge.
机译：这项研究评估了有和没有气候变化对河流流量影响的水库的水力发电性能。这项研究的案例研究包括伊朗的Khersan 1，Karoon 4和Karoon 3油藏。具有A2温室气体排放情景的HADCM3气候模型与按比例缩小比例来评估气候变化对河流排放和水库水力发电的影响。实施了IHACRES降雨径流模型，以计算气候变化条件下的河流流量。实施水库模拟和优化模型以计算基期（1986–2000），未来时期1（2025–2039），未来时期2（2055–2069）和未来时期3（2085–2099）的水力发电量。使用模拟（标准运行策略）和优化模型在考虑的时期内计算水库的发电量和性能标准。我们的结果表明，最大的水库流量减少量按降序分别对应于未来时期3、1和2。此外，发现通过优化模型获得的水力发电量要大于通过仿真模型获得的水力发电量。计算出的基准期和未来期1、2和3的发电量增长分别等于6％，19％，10％和22％。这些结果证明了在Khersan-Karoon水库系统中为水电生产应用优化模型来减轻和适应气候变化对河流排放的影响的好处。

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