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Streamflow Forecast Errors and Their Impacts on Forecast-based Reservoir Flood Control

机译：流量预报误差及其对基于预报的水库防洪的影响

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摘要

To make full use of water captured by reservoirs in flood seasons, methods such as forecast-based reservoir flood control (i.e., reservoir operation during flood periods based on precipitation or inflow forecasts) have been developed in China in the past few decades. The success of forecast-based reservoir flood control depends heavily on the precision of the precipitation or inflow forecasts. This study analyzes the sources of uncertainty and quantifies it in the process of reservoir flood control based on forecasts. First, flood inflow series is regarded as a random process with the forecasted flood inflows as its expectation process; the flood inflow error series, which is the difference between the observed inflow process and the forecasted inflow process, is obtained according to the statistical characteristics of the flood forecasts. Second, reservoir flood routing simulations are carried out using the Monte Carlo method with the flood inflow error series as an input to obtain output water level and discharge series. Finally, the frequency distributions of the maximum water level (MWL) reached during the passage of floods are used to evaluate the uncertainties and the corresponding risks associated with forecast-based flood control. These uncertainties and risks are what the operators of the reservoirs care about the most.
机译：为了充分利用汛期水库捕获的水，在过去的几十年中，已经开发了诸如基于预测的水库洪水控制（即基于降水或流量预测的洪水期水库运行）之类的方法。基于预测的水库防洪的成功在很大程度上取决于降水或流入预测的精度。这项研究分析了不确定性的根源，并根据预测在水库防洪过程中将其量化。首先，洪水流量序列被认为是一个随机过程，其预测洪水流量是其预期过程。根据洪水预报的统计特征，得出了洪水流入误差序列，即观测到的流入过程与预测的流入过程之间的差。其次，使用蒙特卡罗方法，以洪水入流误差序列作为输入，进行水库洪水路径模拟，以获得输出水位和排放序列。最后，在洪水通过期间达到的最高水位（MWL）的频率分布用于评估不确定性和与基于预测的洪水控制相关的相应风险。这些不确定性和风险是水库运营商最关心的。

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