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Probabilistic analysis of the effects of climate change on groundwater recharge

机译：气候变化对地下水补给影响的概率分析

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Groundwater recharge is likely to be affected by climate change. In semiarid regions where groundwater resources are often critical, annual recharge rates are typically small and most recharge occurs episodically. Such episodic recharge is uncertain and difficult to predict. This paper analyzes the impacts of different climate predictions on diffuse episodic recharge at a low-relief semiarid rain-fed agricultural area. The analysis relies on a probabilistic approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainties in meteorological forcing and in soil and vegetation properties. An ensemble of recharge forecasts is generated from Monte Carlo simulations of a study site in the southern High Plains, United States. Soil and vegetation parameter realizations are conditioned on soil moisture and soil water chloride observations (Ng et al., 2009). A stochastic weather generator provides realizations of meteorological time series for climate alternatives from different general circulation models. For most climate alternatives, predicted changes in average recharge (spanning -75% to +35%) are larger than the corresponding changes in average precipitation (spanning -25% to +20%). This suggests that amplification of climate change impacts may occur in groundwater systems. Predictions also include varying changes in the frequency and magnitude of recharge events. The temporal distribution of precipitation change (over seasons and rain events) explains most of the variability in predictions of recharge totals and episodic occurrence. The ensemble recharge analysis presented in this study offers a systematic approach to investigating interactions between uncertainty and nonlinearities in episodic recharge.
机译：地下水补给可能会受到气候变化的影响。在地下水资源通常至关重要的半干旱地区，年补给率通常很小，而且大部分补给是流行的。这样的情景补给是不确定的并且难以预测。本文分析了低浮雕半干旱雨养农业区不同气候预测对扩散情景补给的影响。该分析基于一种概率方法，该方法明确说明了气象强迫以及土壤和植被特性中的不确定性。根据美国南部高平原上一个研究地点的蒙特卡洛模拟，产生了一组补给预测。土壤和植被参数的实现取决于土壤湿度和土壤水氯化物的观测（Ng等，2009）。随机天气生成器为来自不同总体循环模型的气候替代方案提供了气象时间序列的实现。对于大多数气候替代方案，平均补给量的预测变化（范围为-75％至+ 35％）大于相应的平均降水量变化（范围为-25％至+ 20％）。这表明在地下水系统中可能会加剧气候变化的影响。预测还包括充电事件的频率和幅度的变化。降水变化的时间分布（随季节和降雨事件的变化）解释了补给总量和事件发生预测中的大多数可变性。本研究中提出的整体充电分析提供了一种系统的方法来调查情景充电中的不确定性和非线性之间的相互作用。

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  • 来源
    《Water resources research》 |2010年第7期|P.W07502.1-W07502.18|共18页
  • 作者

    Gene-Hua Crystal Ng; Dennis McLaughlin; Dara Entekhabi; Bridget R. Scanlon;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA U.S. Geological Survey, Mcnlo Park, California, USA;

    rnDepartment of Civil and Environmcmal Hnginening, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Bldg, 48-208, Parsons Laboratory, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA;

    rnDepartment of Civil and Environmcmal Hnginening, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Bldg, 48-208, Parsons Laboratory, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA;

    rnBureau of Eeonomie Geology, Jackson School of Geoscienees, University of Texas at Austin, J. J. Pickle Research Campus, Bldg.130, 10100 Bumet Rd., Austin,TX 78758-4445, USA;

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