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Regional methods for trend detection: Assessing field significance and regional consistency

机译：区域趋势检测方法：评估字段的重要性和区域一致性

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摘要

This paper describes regional methods for assessing field significance and regional consistency for trend detection in hydrological extremes. Four procedures for assessing field significance are compared on the basis of Monte Carlo simulations. Then three regional tests, based on a regional variable, on the regional average Mann-Kendall test, and a new semiparametric approach, are tested. The latter was found to be the most adequate to detect consistent changes within homogeneous hydro-climatic regions. Finally, these procedures are applied to France, using daily discharge data arising from 195 gauging stations. No generalized change was found at the national scale on the basis of the field significance assessment of at-site results. Hydro-climatic regions were then defined, and the semiparametric procedure applied. Most of the regions showed no consistent change, but three exceptions were found: in the northeast flood peaks were found to increase, in the Pyrenees high and low flows showed decreasing trends, and in the Alps, earlier snowmelt-related floods were detected, along with less severe drought and increasing runoff due to glacier melting. The trend affecting floods in the northeast was compared to changes in rainfall, using rainfall-runoff simulation. The results showed flood trends consistent with the observed rainfall.
机译：本文介绍了用于评估现场重要性的区域方法和在水文极端情况下趋势检测中的区域一致性。在蒙特卡洛模拟的基础上，比较了四种评估现场重要性的方法。然后，基于区域变量，区域平均Mann-Kendall检验和新的半参数方法，对三个区域检验进行了测试。已发现后者最适合检测均质水气候区域内的一致变化。最后，使用来自195个计量站的每日排放数据将这些程序应用于法国。根据现场结果的现场重要性评估，在国家范围内未发现普遍变化。然后定义了水文气候区域，并应用了半参数程序。大多数地区没有显示出一致的变化，但发现了三个例外：在东北洪水峰增加，在比利牛斯山脉，高流量和低流量显示出下降的趋势，在阿尔卑斯山，早期发现了与融雪有关的洪水。干旱较少，冰川融化导致径流增加。利用降雨径流模拟，将影响东北地区洪水的趋势与降雨变化进行了比较。结果表明洪水趋势与观测到的降雨一致。

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