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Estimating The Economic Benefits Of Wind Energy Projects Using Monte Carlo Simulation With Economic Input/output Analysis

机译：使用带有经济投入/产出分析的蒙特卡罗模拟估算风能项目的经济效益

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摘要

A process was developed to evaluate the economic benefits from constructing and operating a wind energy project. The process uses an economic input/output analysis in conjunction with Monte Carlo simulation. Process results estimate the number of jobs and amount of spending that will occur in the analysis region because of the construction and operation of a wind energy project. Results from the proposed process may be used to gamer community and governmental support for projects. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory jobs, Economic Development and Impacts (JEDI) model, developed specifically for wind energy projects, is used. As there is uncertainty in some of the required input parameters, the Monte Carlo simulation allows the input parameters to be entered as a range. The results of the JEDI model with the Monte Carlo simulation analysis produce a distribution for jobs, salaries and wages, and economic output during construction and operations. The results of the Monte Carlo simulation also provide a sensitivity analysis for each of the JEDI outputs. Two northern Arizona counties, Coconino County and Navajo County, were analysed to demonstrate the process.
机译：开发了一种过程来评估建设和运营风能项目的经济效益。该过程结合蒙特卡洛模拟使用经济的输入/输出分析。过程结果估计了由于风能项目的建设和运营而将在分析区域中发生的工作数量和支出金额。拟议过程的结果可用于游戏社区和政府对项目的支持。使用专门为风能项目开发的国家可再生能源实验室工作，经济发展和影响（JEDI）模型。由于某些所需输入参数存在不确定性，因此蒙特卡洛模拟允许输入输入参数作为范围。 JEDI模型的结果以及蒙特卡洛模拟分析得出了施工和运营期间的工作，工资和工资以及经济产出的分布。蒙特卡洛模拟的结果还为每个JEDI输出提供了灵敏度分析。对亚利桑那州北部的两个县，科科尼诺县和纳瓦霍县进行了分析，以证明这一过程。

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