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首页> 外文期刊>Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft >Internal migration, regional labour market dynamics and implications for German East-West disparities: results from a Panel VAR
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Internal migration, regional labour market dynamics and implications for German East-West disparities: results from a Panel VAR

机译：内部移民，区域劳动力市场动态以及对德国东西方差异的影响：小组VAR的结果

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摘要

This paper analyses the causal linkages between regional labour market variables and internal migration flows among German states between 1991–2006. We adopt a Panel VAR approach to identify the feedback effects among the variables and analyse the dynamic properties of the system through impulse-response functions. We also use the model to track the evolution of the particular East-West migration since re-unification aiming to shed more light on the East German ‘empirical puzzle’, characterized by lower migration responses than expected from the regional labour market position relative to the West. Indeed we get evidence for such a puzzle throughout the mid-1990s, which is likely to be caused by huge West-East income transfers, a fast exogenously driven wage convergence and the possibility of East-West commuting. However, we also observe an inversion of this relationship for later periods: That is, along with a second wave of East-West movements around 2001 net flows out of East Germany were much higher than expected after controlling for its weak labour market and macroeconomic performance. Since this second wave is also accompanied by a gradual fading out of economic distortions and a downward adjustment of expectations about the speed of East-West convergence in standard of livings, this supports the view of ‘repressed’ migration flows for that period.
机译：本文分析了1991-2006年间德国各州之间的区域劳动力市场变量与内部移民流动之间的因果关系。我们采用Panel VAR方法来识别变量之间的反馈效应，并通过脉冲响应函数来分析系统的动态特性。自重新统一以来，我们还使用该模型跟踪特定的东西向移民的演变，目的是更深入地了解东德的“经验难题”，其特点是移民反应相对于区域劳动力市场地位而言相对于预期要低。西方。的确，我们在1990年代中期发现了这样一个难题的证据，这很可能是由大量的东西方收入转移，外生的快速工资工资趋同以及东西方通勤的可能性引起的。但是，我们还会在以后发现这种关系的反转：也就是说，在控制了疲弱的劳动力市场和宏观经济表现之后，随着2001年左右的第二次东西向运动，东德的净流出大大高于预期。 。由于第二波浪潮还伴随着经济扭曲的逐渐消退和对东西方生活水平趋同速度的预期的下调，因此，这支持了该时期“受抑制的”移民潮的观点。

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