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Restrictive Effects of Water Scarcity on Urban Economic Development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei City Region

机译：京津冀城市地区缺水对城市经济发展的制约作用

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This study provides a scientific assessment of water scarcity in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) city region and investigates its restrictive effects on urban economic development by quantifying economic loss caused by water scarcity based on an input–output optimization model. The results show that the water scarcity reflected by shadow prices has significant sectoral and regional heterogeneities. Southern Hebei faces the most severe water scarcity in the BTH city region and the situation is worsening. Water scarcity is shown to have a negative impact on the economy of the BTH city region that amounts to CNY 270.02 billion. Hebei has the largest potential economic loss caused by water scarcity, especially in southern Hebei, the potential GDP (gross domestic product) of which is decreased by 6.2%. This study also points out that the water scarcity in the BTH city region is underestimated in terms of actual water prices, and the scarcity of agricultural water use is mostly underestimated. The results contribute to a deeper understanding of the restrictive impact of water scarcity on regional economic development, and thus provide a scientific reference for policymaking in the BTH city region.
机译：这项研究为京津冀城市地区的水资源短缺提供了科学评估，并通过基于投入产出优化模型对水资源短缺造成的经济损失进行量化，研究了其对城市经济发展的限制性影响。结果表明，影子价格所反映的水资源短缺具有明显的部门和区域异质性。河北南部面临着BTH市区最严重的水资源短缺问题，而且情况正在恶化。水资源短缺对BTH城市地区的经济产生了负面影响，总计达270.02亿元人民币。河北省因缺水而造成的潜在经济损失最大，尤其是河北南部，其潜在国内生产总值（国内生产总值）下降了6.2％。这项研究还指出，根据实际水价低估了BTH市区的水资源短缺，而农业用水的短缺大多被低估了。研究结果有助于更深入地了解缺水对区域经济发展的限制性影响，从而为BTH城市地区的决策提供科学依据。

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