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首页> 外文期刊>Plant Pathology >The spatiotemporal spread of esca disease in a Cabernet Sauvignon vineyard: a statistical analysis of field data
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The spatiotemporal spread of esca disease in a Cabernet Sauvignon vineyard: a statistical analysis of field data

机译：赤霞珠葡萄园中埃斯卡病的时空传播：田间数据的统计分析

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摘要

The occurrence and spread of plants showing esca symptoms were assessed in a vineyard located on the plains of a northern Italian wine-growing region. Esca disease symptoms were assessed over 16 consecutive years, beginning one year after planting. The number of plants with symptoms was recorded over time, considering both vines with foliar symptoms in the year of assessment (manifest esca) and vines with foliar symptoms in previous years (hidden esca). The sum of manifest and hidden esca was indicated as cumulative esca. The first symptoms of esca appeared in the sixth year of cultivation, with the incidence of manifest esca increasing to approximately 3% nine years after planting. The number of cumulative plants with symptoms increased exponentially in the final period of observation. The aim of this work was to investigate the spatiotemporal spread of esca infection throughout the vineyard and to assess the distribution pattern of plants with symptoms using Bayesian spatiotemporal models. The research results seem to support a higher probability of infection along rows rather than among adjacent rows. This observation may have implications for the technical management of the vineyard.
机译：在意大利北部葡萄酒产区平原上的葡萄园中，评估了出现esca症状的植物的发生和扩散。从种植后一年开始，连续16年对Esca疾病症状进行了评估。随时间推移记录有症状植物的数量，同时考虑评估年度有叶状症状的葡萄藤（明显的esca）和前几年有叶状症状的葡萄藤（隐藏的埃斯卡）。清单和隐藏esca的总和表示为累积esca。 esca的第一个症状出现在栽培的第6年，种植后9年，明显的esca的发生率增加到大约3％。在观察的最后阶段，有症状的累积植物数量成倍增加。这项工作的目的是调查esca感染在整个葡萄园中的时空分布，并使用贝叶斯时空模型评估有症状的植物的分布模式。研究结果似乎支持沿行而不是相邻行之间感染的可能性更高。该观察结果可能会对葡萄园的技术管理产生影响。

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