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首页> 外文期刊>Plant Pathology >A MODEL OF PLANT VIRUS DISEASE EPIDEMICS IN ASYNCHRONOUSLY-PLANTED CROPPING SYSTEMS
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A MODEL OF PLANT VIRUS DISEASE EPIDEMICS IN ASYNCHRONOUSLY-PLANTED CROPPING SYSTEMS

机译：异步种植系统中植物病毒病流行的模型

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摘要

A mathematical model was developed of the dynamics of a plant virus disease within a spatially-referenced lattice of fields of a host crop. The model can be applied to crops in continuous, contiguous cultivation such as tropical irrigated rice. Disease progress in each field of the host crop was assumed to be logistic and determined by incidence within the field itself as well as incidence in neighbouring fields, depending on the gradient of disease spread. The frequency distribution of planting dates (represented by the proportion of the total number of fields planted in successive months) was assumed to follow a normal distribution and the variance of planting date was used as a measure of cropping asynchrony. Analysis of the model revealed that disease incidence within the lattice (i.e. mean incidence over all fields) depended upon the infection efficiency, the slope of the dispersal gradient, and the variance in planting date. Disease endemicity depended mainly on planting date variance and disease persisted in the lattice if this variance exceeded a certain threshold. Above the threshold for persistence, the response of mean disease incidence to planting date variance was non-linear and the region of greatest sensitivity was closest to the threshold. Thus, disease systems that show moderate rather than high cropping asynchrony are more likely to be influenced by changes in the variance of planting date. Implications for the area-wide management of rice tungro virus disease are discussed.
机译：建立了一种数学模型，用于在寄主作物田地的空间参照格内动态研究植物病毒疾病。该模型可以应用于连续，连续种植的作物，例如热带灌溉水稻。假定寄主作物每个田地的疾病进展是逻辑的，并取决于田间本身的发生率以及邻近田间的发生率，具体取决于疾病传播的梯度。假定播种日期的频率分布（由连续几个月播种的田地总数的比例表示）服从正态分布，并且播种日期的方差被用作衡量种植不同步的指标。对模型的分析表明，晶格内的疾病发生率（即所有田地的平均发病率）取决于感染效率，扩散梯度的斜率和播种期的变化。病害的流行主要取决于播种期的变异，如果变异超过一定的阈值，病害就会持续存在。在持久性阈值以上，平均病害发生率对播种期差异的响应是非线性的，并且最大敏感性区域最接近阈值。因此，表现出中等而不是高种植异步性的疾病系统更容易受到播种期变化的影响。讨论了对水稻通格罗病毒病的区域管理的意义。

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