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首页> 外文期刊>Population ecology >Small-scale spatial and temporal variation in the demographic processes underlying the large-scale decline of eiders in the Baltic Sea
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Small-scale spatial and temporal variation in the demographic processes underlying the large-scale decline of eiders in the Baltic Sea

机译：波罗的海绒鸭大规模下降的人口统计过程中的小规模时空变化

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The application of uniform conservation schemes often fails to account for small-scale spatial variation in the drivers of population decline. Demographic comparisons of imperilled populations across locations are therefore crucial for successful conservation, but progress is hampered by lack of long-term data from more than a single population. The recent large-scale decline of eider ducks (Somateria mollissima) in the Baltic Sea is ideal for determining to what extent mechanisms underlying population decline can be extrapolated over larger areas. We utilized stochastic demographic methods incorporating both environmental and sampling variation to assess small-scale spatial and temporal variation in the population dynamics of eiders at Soderskar (eastern range-margin) and Tvarminne (core breeding area), situated 130 km apart. The stochastic growth rate models accurately predicted the observed differences in the rate of decline between sites and time periods. At Soderskar, established breeder survival had by far the greatest elasticity, whereas elasticity was more evenly distributed among vital rates at Tvarminne. Although the study sites showed the single largest difference in fecundity, stochastic life table response experiment analyses revealed that reduced adult female survival at Tvarminne mainly determined the observed difference in growth rates between sites. In contrast, reduced fecundity primarily differentiated the past population increase from the present population decline at Soderskar. Our results demonstrate that different mechanisms may be associated with population decline across adjacent geographic locations, and indicate that dispersal of first-time breeders may be important for population dynamics. Safeguarding adult female survival and/or fecundity should be prioritized in management efforts.
机译：采用统一的保护方案往往无法解决人口下降的驱动因素中的小范围空间变化。因此，跨地点的受灾人口的人口统计学比较对于成功的保护至关重要，但由于缺乏来自多个人口的长期数据，阻碍了进展。最近在波罗的海大规模出现的绒鸭（Somateria mollissima）下降，是确定在较大程度上可以推断出种群下降的基本机制的理想选择。我们利用随机人口统计方法结合环境和抽样变异来评估相距130公里的Soderskar（东部范围边缘）和Tvarminne（核心繁殖区）的绒毛种群动态的小规模时空变异。随机增长率模型可以准确预测站点和时间段之间观察到的下降率差异。在Soderskar，既定种鸽的存活率迄今为止具有最大的弹性，而在Tvarminne的重要生命率中弹性分布更为平均。尽管研究地点的生育力差异最大，但随机生命表响应实验分析表明，特瓦尔明省成年女性存活率的下降主要决定了观察到的地点之间生长率的差异。相反，繁殖力下降主要是将过去的人口增加与现在的Soderskar人口减少区分开来。我们的结果表明，不同的机制可能与邻近地理位置的种群下降有关，并表明首次繁殖者的扩散对种群动态可能很重要。在管理工作中应优先保护成年女性的生存和/或繁殖力。

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