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Understanding the election results in Portugal A spatial econometrics point of view

机译：了解葡萄牙的选举结果空间计量经济学观点

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The great majority of the theoretical analyses about electoral cycles has considered the national space as the territory of interest when studying the economic consequences of an electoralist behaviour by the central government. This fact, in conjunction to the nature of the data most commonly available, has lead many authors to empirical studies that test the evidence of electoral cycles mostly at a national level. Given that the election results for the main parties, at least in Portugal, clearly reflect some spatial localisation we find rather intriguing to verify that so very few of those empirical studies use spatial econometrics techniques. The main objective of the paper is to detect empirical evidence supporting the existence of a link between voters' ideology and the 2002 election results obtained by the two main parties in Portugal. The confrontation of the spatial econometric results with the ones obtained ignoring the spatial localisation of the data shows that, in order to better understand the election results, space must be taken into account.
机译：有关选举周期的大多数理论分析在研究中央政府的选举主义行为的经济后果时，都将国家空间视为关注的领域。这一事实，结合最常用的数据的性质，已导致许多作者进行了实证研究，这些实证研究主要在国家一级测试选举周期的证据。考虑到主要政党的选举结果，至少在葡萄牙，清楚地反映了一些空间定位，因此我们很感兴趣地证明，很少有经验研究使用空间计量经济学技术。本文的主要目的是寻找经验证据，证明选民的意识形态与葡萄牙两个主要政党获得的2002年选举结果之间存在联系。空间计量经济学结果与忽略数据空间定位而获得的结果的对立表明，为了更好地理解选举结果，必须考虑空间。

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