How can irregular causal generalizations guide practice?

Hausman DM

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How can irregular causal generalizations guide practice?

机译：不规则因果归纳法如何指导实践？

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In this essay, I shall be concerned with the sort of "irregular" causal generalizations that epidemiologists aim to discover. Examples include "Smoking causes lung cancer," "HIV viruses cause AIDs," or "Low dose aspirin prevents strokes." What do these claims mean and how should they guide action? I argue that philosophers have mistakenly believed that answering these questions calls for a theory of what it is for one event to be a probabilistic cause of another. But this theory fails to provide plausible truth conditions for irregular causal generalizations. Indeed, it implies that most of them are false. I sketch a more plausible view, but point out the risks one takes in relying on these generalizations to guide action.

机译：在本文中，我将关注流行病学家旨在发现的“不规则”因果概括。例子包括“吸烟引起肺癌”，“ HIV病毒引起艾滋病”或“低剂量阿司匹林预防中风”。这些主张意味着什么，它们应如何指导行动？我认为哲学家错误地认为，回答这些问题需要一种理论，即一个事件是另一事件的概率原因。但是，该理论无法为不规则因果归纳提供合理的真理条件。确实，这意味着它们大多数都是错误的。我画出了一个更合理的观点，但指出了依靠这些概括来指导行动的风险。

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《Preventive Medicine: An International Journal Devoted to Practice and Theory》 |2011年第5期|共3页
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Hausman DM;
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中图分类环境卫生、环境医学;
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1. How can irregular causal generalizations guide practice? [J] . Hausman DM Preventive Medicine: An International Journal Devoted to Practice and Theory . 2011,第4a5期

机译：不规则因果归纳法如何指导实践？
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4. A Causal Modeling Framework for Generating Clinical Practice Guidelines from Data [C] . Subramani Mani, Constantin Aliferis Conference on Artificial Intelligence in Medicine(AIME 2007); 20070707-11; Amsterdam(NL) . 2007

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5. Shipping configuration optimization with topology-based guided local search for irregular shaped shipments [D] . Chang, Xinyue. 2015

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6. Clinical Practice Guideline for the Treatment of Intrinsic Circadian Rhythm Sleep-Wake Disorders: Advanced Sleep-Wake Phase Disorder (ASWPD) Delayed Sleep-Wake Phase Disorder (DSWPD) Non-24-Hour Sleep-Wake Rhythm Disorder (N24SWD) and Irregular Sleep-Wake Rhythm Disorder (ISWRD). An Update for 2015: An American Academy of Sleep Medicine Clinical Practice Guideline [O] . R. Robert Auger, Helen J. Burgess, Jonathan S. Emens, 2015

机译：治疗内在昼夜节律睡眠障碍的临床实践指南：先进的睡眠唤醒期疾病（ASWPD）延迟睡眠术后疾病（DSWPD）非24小时睡眠节奏障碍（N24WD）以及不规则的睡眠唤醒节奏障碍（ISWRD）。 2015年的更新：美国睡眠医学院临床实践指南
7. ACC/AHA/ESC guidelines for the management of patients with atrial fibrillation31This document was approved by the American College of Cardiology Board of Trustees in August 2001, the American Heart Association Science Advisory and Coordinating Committee in August 2001, and the European Society of Cardiology Board and Committee for Practice Guidelines and Policy Conferences in August 2001.32When citing this document, the American College of Cardiology, the American Heart Association, and the European Society of Cardiology would appreciate the following citation format: Fuster V, Rydén LE, Asinger RW, Cannom DS, Crijns HJ, Frye RL, Halperin JL, Kay GN, Klein WW, Lévy S, McNamara RL, Prystowsky EN, Wann LS, Wyse DG. ACC/AHA/ESC guidelines for the management of patients with atrial fibrillation: a report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force on Practice Guidelines and the European Society of Cardiology Committee for Practice Guidelines and Policy Conferences (Committee to Develop Guidelines for the Management of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation). J Am Coll Cardiol 2001;38:XX-XX.33This document is available on the World Wide Web sites of the American College of Cardiology (www.acc.org), the American Heart Association (www.americanheart.org), the European Society of Cardiology (www.escardio.org), and the North American Society of Pacing and Electrophysiology (www.naspe.org). Single reprints of this document (the complete Guidelines) to be published in the mid-October issue of the European Heart Journal are available by calling +44.207.424.4200 or +44.207.424.4389, faxing +44.207.424.4433, or writing Harcourt Publishers Ltd, European Heart Journal, ESC Guidelines – Reprints, 32 Jamestown Road, London, NW1 7BY, United Kingdom. Single reprints of the shorter version (Executive Summary and Summary of Recommendations) published in the October issue of the Journal of the American College of Cardiology and the October issue of Circulation, are available for $5.00 each by calling 800-253-4636 (US only) or by writing the Resource Center, American College of Cardiology, 9111 Old Georgetown Road, Bethesda, Maryland 20814. To purchase bulk reprints specify version and reprint number (Executive Summary 71-0208; full text 71-0209) up to 999 copies, call 800-611-6083 (US only) or fax 413-665-2671; 1000 or more copies, call 214-706-1466, fax 214-691-6342; or E-mail: pubauth@heart.org. A report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force on Practice Guidelines and the European Society of Cardiology Committee for Practice Guidelines and Policy Conferences (Committee to Develop Guidelines for the Management of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation) Developed in Collaboration With the North American Society of Pacing and Electrophysiology [O] . Fuster Valentin, Rydén Lars E., Asinger Richard W., 2001

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8. Pressure Ulcers in Adults: Prediction and Prevention. Clinical Practice GuidelineNo. 3. Quick Reference Guide No. 3. Preventing Pressure Ulcers: A Patient's Guide. Clinical Practice Guideline, 1992 [R] . 1992

机译：成人压疮：预测和预防。临床实践指南。 3.快速参考指南3.防止压疮：患者指南。临床实践指南，1992年

How can irregular causal generalizations guide practice?

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