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首页> 外文期刊>Preventive Medicine: An International Journal Devoted to Practice and Theory >Projecting the probability of survival free from cancer and cardiovascular incidence through lifestyle modification in Japan.
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Projecting the probability of survival free from cancer and cardiovascular incidence through lifestyle modification in Japan.

机译：通过改变日本的生活方式来预测没有癌症和心血管疾病的存活率。

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OBJECTIVES: To promote prevention strategies aimed at reducing the incidence of cancer or cardiovascular disease (CVD), we present a method to project the probability that a subject with given lifestyle risk factors will survive free from either of cancer or CVD. METHODS: Projection models were developed from data from a cohort study conducted in Japan. During 1990-2003, 96,592 subjects were followed and 5797 cancer and 2591 CVD cases and 2395 deaths were identified. Smoking, alcohol intake and body mass index (BMI) were used as common risk factors in projection models. RESULTS: According to the projection of individualized probability, avoidance of smoking, excess alcohol intake and high BMI increased 10-year disease-free survival probability from 81.4% to 92.9% and from 88.0% to 94.3% in 50- to 54-year-old men and women, respectively. In terms of population average risk, smoking cessation and avoidance of excess alcohol exerted a large impact, while decreasing BMI had a small impact due to the small at-risk population. CONCLUSIONS: Current smoking, excess alcohol intake and obesity were suggested as common risk factors for cancer and CVD. Considering the distribution of risk factors in the Japanese population, smoking prevention/cessation and reduction of excess alcohol intake would prevent a large number of incident cases.
机译：目的：为了促进旨在减少癌症或心血管疾病（CVD）发生率的预防策略，我们提出了一种方法来预测具有给定生活方式风险因素的受试者能够生存而不受癌症或CVD影响的可能性。方法：根据在日本进行的队列研究的数据开发了投影模型。在1990年至2003年期间，对96,592名受试者进行了随访，并鉴定出5797例癌症和2591例CVD病例和2395例死亡。吸烟，酒精摄入和体重指数（BMI）被用作投影模型中的常见危险因素。结果：根据个体化概率的预测，避免吸烟，过量饮酒和高BMI将10年无病生存率从81.4％增至92.9％，将50至54岁的无病生存率从88.0％增至94.3％。老男人和女人。就人口平均风险而言，戒烟和避免过量饮酒产生了很大的影响，而降低BMI则由于高风险人群而产生的影响很小。结论：目前吸烟，过量饮酒和肥胖被认为是癌症和CVD的常见危险因素。考虑到日本人口中危险因素的分布，预防/戒烟和减少过量饮酒将预防大量事故。

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