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首页> 外文期刊>Progress in Physical Geography >Uncertainty in the construction of global knowledge of tropical forests
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Uncertainty in the construction of global knowledge of tropical forests

机译：全球热带森林知识建设中的不确定性

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Knowledge of tropical forest change remains uncertain, affecting our ability to produce accurate estimates of globally aggregated parameters to support clear global statements about 'the tropical forests'. This paper reviews current methods for constructing global knowledge of changes in tropical forest area, carbon density, biodiversity and ecosystem services. It finds a deficiency in formal institutions for global measurement and constructing global knowledge. In their absence, informal institutions have proliferated, increasing the spread of estimates. This is exacerbated by dependence on inaccurate official statistics, which has limited construction of knowledge about forest area change through modelling. Employing the new concept of the Knowledge Exchange Chain shows the interdependence of different disciplines in constructing composite information. Limitations linked to compartmentalization and scale are present, as predicted by the 'post-normal hypothesis'. Disciplinary compartmentalization has impeded construction of information about forest carbon and biodiversity change. There is growth in interdisciplinary research into modelling forest change and estimating carbon emissions using remote sensing data, but not in studying biodiversity. Continuing uncertainty has implications for implementing the Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) scheme. Uncertainty could be reduced by expanding formal scientific institutions, e.g. by establishing an operational scientific global forest monitoring system, and devising formal generic rules for constructing global environmental knowledge.
机译：关于热带森林变化的知识仍然不确定，这影响了我们对全球总体参数进行准确估计以支持有关“热带森林”的明确全球声明的能力。本文回顾了构建热带森林面积，碳密度，生物多样性和生态系统服务变化的全球知识的当前方法。它发现在正式机构中缺乏进行全球衡量和构建全球知识的能力。在没有这些机构的情况下，非正式机构激增，从而增加了估计数的分布。对不准确官方统计数据的依赖加剧了这种情况，而官方统计数据通过建模限制了有关森林面积变化知识的构建。采用知识交换链的新概念表明了在构建复合信息时不同学科之间的相互依赖性。正如“正常后假设”所预测的，存在与划分和规模相关的局限性。学科隔离已阻碍了有关森林碳和生物多样性变化的信息的建设。跨学科研究正在不断发展，以建立森林变化模型和使用遥感数据估算碳排放量，但没有研究生物多样性。持续的不确定性对实施减少森林砍伐和退化造成的排放量（REDD）计划具有影响。不确定性可以通过扩大正式的科学机构来减少，例如通过建立可操作的科学的全球森林监测系统，并为构建全球环境知识制定正式的通用规则。

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