Making low probability useful

H. Kunreuther; N. Novemsky; D. Kahneman

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Making low probability useful

机译：使低概率有用

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In a set of experiments, information is presented to individuals on the likelihood of serious accidents from a chemical facility. Comparisons are made with other risks, such as fatalities from automobile accidents, to see whether laypersons can determine the relative safety of different plants. The conclusion is that a fairly rich context information must be available for people to be able to judge differences between low probabilities. In particular, it appears that one needs to present comparison scenarios that are located on the probability scale to evoke people's own feeling of risk. The concept of evaluability recently introduced in (Ref. 1) provides a useful explanation of these findings. (15 refs.)

机译：在一组实验中，将有关化学工厂发生严重事故的可能性的信息提供给个人。将其与其他风险（例如因汽车事故造成的死亡）进行比较，以了解外行人员是否可以确定不同工厂的相对安全性。结论是，人们必须能够获得相当丰富的上下文信息，才能判断出低概率之间的差异。特别是，似乎需要提出一种位于概率规模上的比较方案，以唤起人们自己的风险感。（参考文献1）最近引入的可评估性概念为这些发现提供了有用的解释。（15个参考）

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《Quality Control and Applied Statistics》 |2002年第3期|共2页
作者
H. Kunreuther; N. Novemsky; D. Kahneman;
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正文语种 eng
中图分类工业技术;一般工业技术;工程基础科学;
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1. The Effect of Various High-Probability to Low-Probability Instruction Ratios During the Use of the High-Probability Instructional Sequence [J] . Ertel Hallie, Wilder David A., Hodges Ansley, Behavior modification . 2019,第5期

机译：在使用高概率教学序列期间各种高概率对低概率指令比的影响
2. Comment on "significance of "high probability/low damage" versus "low probability/high damage" flood events" by Merz et al. (2009) [J] . Rheinberger C.M. Natural hazards and earth system sciences . 2010,第1期

机译：Merz等人评论了“高概率/低破坏”与“低概率/高破坏”洪水事件的重要性”。（2009年）
3. Reply to Comment on "significance of "high probability/low damage" versus "low probability/high damage" flood events" by C. M. Rheinberger (2009) [J] . Merz B., Elmer F., Thieken A.H. Natural hazards and earth system sciences . 2010,第1期

机译：C. M. Rheinberger（2009）对““高概率/低破坏”与“低概率/高破坏”洪水事件的重要性”的评论答复
4. Overflow Probability of Codeword Cost in Variable-Length Coding Problem Allowing Non-Vanishing Error Probability [C] . Ryo Nomura, Hideki Yagi International Symposium on Information Theory and its Applications . 2018

机译：可变长度编码问题中码字成本的溢出概率允许无空差错概率
5. YOUNG INFANTS' EVENT-RELATED POTENTIALS (ERPS) TO HIGH PROBABILITY AND LOW PROBABILITY VISUAL AND AUDITORY EVENTS IN A RECOGNITION MEMORY TASK. [D] . HOFMANN, MARTIN JOSEPH. 1981

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6. AN EVALUATION OF A PROGRESSIVE HIGH-PROBABILITY INSTRUCTIONAL SEQUENCE COMBINED WITH LOW-PROBABILITY DEMAND FADING IN THE TREATMENT OF FOOD SELECTIVITY [O] . Becky Penrod, Laura Gardella, Jonathan Fernand 2012

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7. Very Low Probability Interpretation of V/Q Lung Scans in Combination with Low Probability Objective Clinical Assessment Reliably Excludes Pulmonary Embolism: Data from PIOPED II [O] . Er Gottschalk, Paul D. Stein, H. Dirk Sostman, 2014

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机译：道路交通事故数据的重新评估 - 分析政策：将核电厂危机等高概率，低概率事件的理论应用于交通事故等自愿，低后果，高概率事件。

Making low probability useful

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