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How to confuse with statistics or: The use and misuse of conditional probabilities

机译:如何与统计混淆,或:条件概率的使用和滥用

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摘要

The application of conditional probability easily lends itself to intentional and unintentional misinterpretation of statistical information of many sorts. The examples cited in Darrel Huff's book can be rephrased in terms of conditional probabilities. This paper provides various ways in which such reasoning can be misleading. Some fresh examples are also provided. It is also shown that the confusion can be avoided by presenting the information in terms of natural frequencies.
机译:条件概率的应用很容易导致对多种统计信息的有意和无意的误解。 Darrel Huff的书中引用的示例可以用条件概率来表述。本文提供了各种可能导致这种误导的方式。还提供了一些新的示例。还显示出可以通过以固有频率表示信息来避免混淆。

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