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Confidence intervals for proportions estimated by group testin with groups of unequal size

机译:通过小组测试对不等大小的小组估计的比例的置信区间

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摘要

Group testing occurs when units from a population are pooled and tested as a group for the presence of a particular attribute, such as a disease. It is assumed that if the test result is positive, at least one of the units in the group is positive, and if the result is negative, all the units are negative. Group testing has been applied in many fields of study since its first appearance in the statistical literature, Dorfman (Ref. 1). These fields include plant disease assessment, Fletcher, Russell and Butler (Ref. 2), fisheries, Worlund and Taylor (Ref. 3), and transmission of viruses by insect vectors, Swallow (Ref. 4). Group testing has also appeared under other names, such as 'batch sampling' and 'pooled testing'. Its main benefit is the saving of resources due to the fact that many units are not individually tested. Group testing has one of the following two aims, which in practice are almost mutually exclusive either to identify the positive units in the groups tested or to estimate the proportion of positives (p) in the wider population. Two assumptions will be made about group testing in this article: The outcomes for the units in each group follow independent, identically distributed (iid) binomial distributions with parameter p. The testing is conducted without error, that is, there are no false negatives (perfect sensitivity) and no false positives (perfect specificity). Section 2 examines interval estimation methods based on functions of the MLE of p, looking first at the identity function, which is shown to be unsatisfactory. The logit and complementary log-log functions are then considered and are shown to warrant further investigation. Section 3 examines methods based on the score and finds a correction for skewness to provide the substantial improvement necessary to consider the method further. Section 4 considers intervals based on the likelihood ratio, which also prove to be satisfactory. Section 5 compares the four promising methods using five realistic group testing procedures involving unequal group sizes. A brief comparison is also made with exact interval estimation methods. The main assessment criterion used in the comparisons is the coverage probability achieved by nominal 95 percent CIs, though interval width is also considered. Section 6 concludes the article with a discussion.
机译:分组测试是将来自某个种群的单位汇总并作为一组测试特定属性(例如疾病)的存在而进行的。假设测试结果为阳性,则组中至少一个单位为阳性,如果结果为阴性,则所有单位均为阴性。自从在统计文献Dorfman(参考资料1)中首次出现以来,小组测试就已应用于许多研究领域。这些领域包括植物病害评估,弗莱彻,罗素和巴特勒(参考文献2),渔业,沃伦德和泰勒(参考文献3)以及昆虫媒介燕子的病毒传播(参考文献4)。团体测试也以其他名称出现,例如“批量采样”和“合并测试”。它的主要好处是节省资源,因为许多单元没有经过单独测试。小组测试具有以下两个目标之一,实际上,这两个目标几乎是互斥的,以标识测试组中的阳性单位,或估计更广泛的人群中阳性(p)的比例。本文将对组测试做出两个假设:每个组中单元的结果遵循参数为p的独立,均匀分布(iid)二项式分布。测试没有错误,即没有假阴性(完美的灵敏度)和假阳性(完美的特异性)。第2节研究了基于p的MLE的函数的区间估计方法,首先查看了表示满意的恒等函数。然后考虑logit和互补log-log功能,并显示它们有待进一步研究。第3节根据得分检查方法,并找到偏斜度的校正,以提供进一步考虑该方法所需的实质性改进。第4节根据似然比考虑间隔,这也被证明是令人满意的。第5节使用涉及不相等的小组规模的五个现实的小组测试程序对四种有希望的方法进行了比较。还使用精确的间隔估计方法进行了简要比较。比较中使用的主要评估标准是标称95%CI的覆盖率,尽管也考虑了间隔宽度。第6节以讨论结束本文。

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