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Le Pic du Petrole,un tournant pour l'humanite.Sommes-nous prets ?

机译:石油高峰,人类的转折点,我们准备好了吗?

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摘要

Every day ten millions of Belgian citizens,industrials,and politicians plan their life,invest,andmake decisions basedon the faith that o?l will stay plentiful and cheap for decades.However,there are many indications that the world oil production is now reaching a maximum,or apeak,which will soon befollowed by an irreversible decline.As oil is the lifeblood of our civilization and its consumption is expected to grow steadily in the future,a declining production would have profound consequences in every aspect of our life.This paper gives an overview of the current oil situation,the likely scenarios for the future evolution of oil production and exports,and possible consequences and solutions to the problem.In particular,we present some of the tools used by the geologists to foresee oil production and show,in a few case studies,how these predictions compare to models developed by economists and currently used as the basis for energy policy by the consuming countries.
机译:每天有上千万的比利时公民,工业界和政界人士基于他们的信念,即石油将维持数十年的充裕和廉价状态,进行生活计划,投资和决策。然而,有许多迹象表明,世界石油产量正在达到由于石油是我们文明的命脉,而且石油的消费有望在未来稳定增长,因此产量下降将对我们生活的各个方面产生深远的影响。概述了当前的石油状况,石油生产和出口的未来演变的可能情况,以及对该问题的可能后果和解决方案。特别是,我们介绍了地质学家用来预测石油生产并显示出一些工具。在一些案例研究中,这些预测如何与经济学家开发的模型进行比较,这些模型目前已被消费国用作能源政策的基础。

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