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首页> 外文期刊>Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society >Assessment of numerical weather forecasts against observations from Cardington: seasonal diurnal cycles of screen-level and surface temperatures and surface fluxes
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Assessment of numerical weather forecasts against observations from Cardington: seasonal diurnal cycles of screen-level and surface temperatures and surface fluxes

机译：根据Cardington的观测值评估数值天气预报：屏幕水平和表面温度以及表面通量的季节性昼夜周期

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摘要

The performance of numerical weather forecasts made with the Met Office Unified Model is evaluated using near-surface measurements made at a comprehensively instrumented site over the course of the annual cycle, with the aim of characterizing the forecasting system's generic behaviour in the surface layer. The study is focused on the seasonal diurnal cycles of the screen-level and surface temperatures and the surface flux budget. High-resolution versions of the model simulate seasonal composite diurnal cycles of the screen temperature to an accuracy of about 1 K, but appear to show a cold bias in the surface skin temperature by day and a warm bias at night, while underestimating the magnitude of the difference in temperature between the screen leveland the surface, particularly in conditions of light winds and strong surface cooling. The consistency of the measured surface fluxes is assessed by deriving the full annual cycle of the monthly mean atmospheric surface fluxes. The measured surface fluxbudget at this site is closed to an accuracy better than 5Wm~(-2). Comparison of the modelled and measured fluxes shows that in spring and summer the modelled downward shortwave fluxes are too large, while the latent heat fluxes are overestimated.
机译：使用Met Office统一模型进行的数字天气预报的性能是在整个年度周期内，使用在全面仪器安装的站点进行的近地表测量来评估的，目的是表征预测系统在地表层的一般行为。该研究集中于屏幕水平和表面温度的季节性昼夜周期以及表面通量预算。该模型的高分辨率版本将屏幕温度的季节性复合昼夜周期模拟为大约1 K的精度，但似乎在白天显示了表面皮肤温度的冷偏差，而在夜间则显示了表面温度的偏差，同时低估了温度的幅度。屏幕水平面与表面之间的温度差，特别是在微风和强烈的表面冷却条件下。通过得出月平均大气表面通量的整个年度周期来评估所测得的表面通量的一致性。在该位置处测得的表面通量预算的精度要高于5Wm〜（-2）。对模型通量和实测通量的比较表明，在春季和夏季，模型向下的短波通量太大，而潜热通量被高估了。

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