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首页> 外文期刊>Pure and Applied Geophysics >Statistical Evaluation of Efficiency and Possibility of Earthquake Predictions with Gravity Field Variation and its Analytic Signal in Western China
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Statistical Evaluation of Efficiency and Possibility of Earthquake Predictions with Gravity Field Variation and its Analytic Signal in Western China

机译：重力场变化及其分析信号的地震预报有效性和可能性的统计评价

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摘要

This paper aimed at assessing gravity variations as precursors for earthquake prediction in the Tibet (Xizang)-Qinghai-Xinjiang-Sichuan Region, western China. We here take a statistical approach to evaluate efficiency and possibility of earthquake prediction. We used the most recent spatiotemporal gravity field variation datasets of 2002-2008 for the region that were provided by the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONC). The datasets were space sparse and time discrete. In 2007-2010, 13 earthquakes (> M (s) 6.0) occurred in the region. The observed gravity variations have a statistical correlation with the occurrence of these earthquakes through the Molchan error diagram tests that lead to alarms over a good fraction of space-time. The results show that the prediction efficiency of amplitude of analytic signal of gravity variations is better than seismicity rate model and THD and absolute value of gravity variation, implying that gravity variations before earthquake may include precursory information of future large earthquakes.
机译：本文旨在评估重力变化作为预测中国西部西藏（西藏）-青海-新疆-四川地区地震的先兆。我们在这里采用一种统计方法来评估地震预报的效率和可能性。我们使用了中国地壳运动观测网络（CMONC）提供的该地区2002-2008年最新时空重力场变化数据集。数据集是空间稀疏的和时间离散的。在2007-2010年期间，该地区发生了13次地震（> M（s）6.0）。通过Molchan误差图测试，观测到的重力变化与这些地震的发生具有统计相关性，从而导致在相当大的时空范围内发出警报。结果表明，重力变化分析信号振幅的预测效率优于地震活动率模型，总谐波失真和重力变化的绝对值，表明地震前的重力变化可能包含未来大地震的前兆信息。

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