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首页> 外文期刊>Pure and Applied Geophysics >Seismic Hazard Analysis Using the Adaptive Kernel Density Estimation Technique for Chennai City
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Seismic Hazard Analysis Using the Adaptive Kernel Density Estimation Technique for Chennai City

机译：基于自适应核密度估计技术的钦奈市地震危险性分析

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Conventional method of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) using the Cornell-McGuire approach requires identification of homogeneous source zones as the first step. This criterion brings along many issues and, hence, several alternative methods to hazard estimation have come up in the last few years. Methods such as zoneless or zone-free methods, modelling of earth's crust using numerical methods with finite element analysis, have been proposed. Delineating a homogeneous source zone in regions of distributed seismicity and/or diffused seismicity is rather a difficult task. In this study, the zone-free method using the adaptive kernel technique to hazard estimation is explored for regions having distributed and diffused seismicity. Chennai city is in such a region with low to moderate seismicity so it has been used as a case study. The adaptive kernel technique is statistically superior to the fixed kernel technique primarily because the bandwidth of the kernel is varied spatially depending on the clustering or sparseness of the epicentres. Although the fixed kernel technique has proven to work well in general density estimation cases, it fails to perform in the case of multimodal and long tail distributions. In such situations, the adaptive kernel technique serves the purpose and is more relevant in earthquake engineering as the activity rate probability density surface is multimodal in nature. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) obtained from all the three approaches (i.e., the Cornell-McGuire approach, fixed kernel and adaptive kernel techniques) for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years is around 0.087 g. The uniform hazard spectra (UHS) are also provided for different structural periods.
机译：使用Cornell-McGuire方法的概率概率地震危险性分析（PSHA）的常规方法要求首先确定均质震源区。该标准带来了许多问题，因此，最近几年提出了几种替代方法来进行危害估计。已经提出了诸如无区域或无区域方法，利用数值方法和有限元分析对地壳建模的方法。在分布地震活动性和/或扩散地震活动性区域中划定均匀震源区是一项艰巨的任务。在这项研究中，探索了使用自适应核技术进行危险性估计的无区域方法，用于具有分布和分散地震活动性的区域。钦奈市处于地震活动程度较低至中等的地区，因此已被用作案例研究。自适应内核技术在统计上优于固定内核技术，主要是因为内核的带宽根据震中的聚类或稀疏性在空间上变化。尽管已证明固定核技术在一般密度估计的情况下效果很好，但在多峰分布和长尾分布的情况下却无法执行。在这种情况下，由于活动率概率密度表面本质上是多峰的，因此自适应核技术可以达到目的，并且在地震工程中更有意义。从这三种方法（即Cornell-McGuire方法，固定核和自适应核技术）在50年内超过10％的概率获得的峰值地面加速度（PGA）约为0.087 g。还提供了不同结构时期的统一危险谱（UHS）。

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