• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Pure and Applied Geophysics >Forecasting Ability of a Multi-Renewal Seismicity Model
【24h】

Forecasting Ability of a Multi-Renewal Seismicity Model

机译：多次更新地震模型的预测能力

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

The inter-event time (IET) is sometimes used as a basis for prediction of large earthquakes. It is the case when theoretical analysis of prediction is possible. Quite recently, a specific IET model was suggested for dynamic probabilistic prediction of M≥5:5 events in Italy (http://earthquake.bo.ingv.it). In this study we analyze some aspects of the statistical estimation of the model and its predictive ability. We find that more or less effective prediction is possible within four out of 34 seismotectonic zones where seismicity rate or clustering of events is relatively high. We show that, in the framework of the model, one can suggest a simple zone-independent strategy, which practically optimizes the relative number of non-accidental successes, or the Hanssen-Kuiper (HK) skill score. This quasi-optimal strategy declares alarm in a zone for the first 2.67 years just after the occurrence of each large event in the zone. The optimal HK skill score values are about 26 % for the three most active zones, and 2-10 % for the 26 least active zones. However, the number of false alarm time intervals per one event in each of the zones is unusually high: about 0.7 and 0.8-0.95, respectively. Both these theoretical estimations are important because any prospective testing of the model is unrealistic in most of the zones during a reasonable time. This particular analysis requires a discussion of the following issues of general interest: a specific approach to the analysis of predictions vs. the standard CSEP testing approach; prediction vs. forecasting; HK skill score vs. probability gain; the total forecast error diagram and connected false alarms.
机译：事件间时间（IET）有时被用作预测大地震的基础。可以进行预测的理论分析时就是这种情况。最近，意大利提出了一种特定的IET模型来动态预测M≥5：5事件的概率（http://earthquake.bo.ingv.it）。在这项研究中，我们分析了模型的统计估计及其预测能力的某些方面。我们发现，在34个地震构造带中，地震活动率或事件聚类程度相对较高的地区中，有四个在或多或少的有效预测是可能的。我们表明，在该模型的框架内，可以提出一种简单的区域无关策略，该策略实际上可以优化非偶然成功的相对数量或Hanssen-Kuiper（HK）技能得分。在该区域中的每个大事件发生之后的最初的2.67年内，这种准最佳策略都会在该区域中发出警报。对于三个最活跃的区域，最佳的HK技能得分值约为26％，对于最不活跃的26个区域，则为2-10％。但是，每个区域中每个事件的错误警报时间间隔的数量异常高：分别约为0.7和0.8-0.95。这两个理论估计都很重要，因为在合理的时间内在大多数区域中对模型进行任何前瞻性测试都是不现实的。这种特殊的分析需要讨论以下普遍关注的问题：预测分析与标准CSEP测试方法的特定方法;预测与预测;香港技能得分与概率增益;总预测误差图和已连接的错误警报。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号