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首页> 外文期刊>Pure and Applied Geophysics >Semi-Periodic Sequences and Extraneous Events in Earthquake Forecasting. II: Application, Forecasts for Japan and Venezuela
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Semi-Periodic Sequences and Extraneous Events in Earthquake Forecasting. II: Application, Forecasts for Japan and Venezuela

机译：地震预报中的半周期序列和无关事件。 II：日本和委内瑞拉的应用，预报

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摘要

In order to analyze observed seismicity in central Japan and Venezuela, we applied a new method to identify semiperiodic sequences in the occurrence times of large earthquakes, which allows for the presence of multiple periodic sequences and/ or events not belonging to any sequence in the time series. We also explored a scheme for diminishing the effects of a sharp cutoff magnitude threshold in selecting the events to analyze. A main four-event sequence with probability P_c = 0.991 of not having occurred by chance was identified for earthquakes with M ≥ 8.0 in central Japan. Venezuela is divided, from West to East, into four regions; for each of these, the magnitude ranges and identified sequences are as follows. Region 1: M ≥ 6.0, a six-event sequence with P_c = 0.923, and a four-event sequence with P_c = 0.706. Region 2: M ≥ 5.6, a five-event sequence with P_c = 0.942. Region 3: M ≥ 5.6, a four-event sequence with P_c = 0.882. Region 4: M ≥ 6.0, a five-event sequence with P_c = 0.891. Forecasts are made and evaluated for all identified sequences having four or more events and probabilities C0.5. The last event of all these sequences was satisfactorily aftcast by previous events. Whether the identified sequences do, in fact, correspond to physical processes resulting in semi-periodic seismicity is, of course, an open question; but the forecasts, properly used, may be useful as a factor in seismic hazard estimation.
机译：为了分析日本中部和委内瑞拉的观测地震活动，我们应用了一种新方法来识别大地震发生时间中的半周期序列，该方法允许存在多个周期性序列和/或该时间中不属于任何序列的事件系列。我们还探索了一种在选择要分析的事件时减小尖锐截止量阈值的影响的方案。对于日本中部M≥8.0的地震，确定了一个偶然发生的概率为P_c = 0.991的主要四事件序列。委内瑞拉从西到东分为四个区域。对于这些中的每一个，幅度范围和确定的序列如下。区域1：M≥6.0，P_c = 0.923的六事件序列，P_c = 0.706的四事件序列。区域2：M≥5.6，一个五事件序列，P_c = 0.942。区域3：M≥5.6，P_c = 0.882的四事件序列。区域4：M≥6.0，一个五事件序列，P_c = 0.891。对具有四个或更多事件和概率C0.5的所有已识别序列进行预测和评估。所有这些序列的最后一个事件都被以前的事件令人满意地广播了。当然，确定的序列是否确实与导致半周期地震活动的物理过程相对应，这是一个悬而未决的问题;但是正确使用的预测可能会成为地震危险性评估中的一个因素。

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