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首页> 外文期刊>Pure and Applied Geophysics >Validation of Seasonal Forecast of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall
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Validation of Seasonal Forecast of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

机译：印度夏季风季风季节预报的验证

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The experimental seasonal forecast of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall during June through September using Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) version 3 has been carried out at the Space Applications Centre Ahmedabad since 2009. The forecasts, based on a number of ensemble members (ten minimum) of CAM, are generated in several phases and updated on regular basis. On completion of 5 years of experimental seasonal forecasts in operational mode, it is required that the overall validation or correctness of the forecast system is quantified and that the scope is assessed for further improvements of the forecast over time, if any. The ensemble model climatology generated by a set of 20 identical CAM simulations is considered as the model control simulation. The performance of the forecast has been evaluated by assuming the control simulation as the model reference. The forecast improvement factor shows positive improvements, with higher values for the recent forecasted years as compared to the control experiment over the Indian landmass. The Taylor diagram representation of the Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC), standard deviation and centered root mean square difference has been used to demonstrate the best PCC, in the order of 0.74-0.79, recorded for the seasonal forecast made during 2013. Further, the bias score of different phases of experiment revealed the fact that the ISM rainfall forecast is affected by overestimation in predicting the low rain-rate (less than 7 mm/day), but by underestimation in the medium and high rain-rate (higher than 11 mm/day). Overall, the analysis shows significant improvement of the ISM forecast over the last 5 years, viz. 2009-2013, due to several important modifications that have been implemented in the forecast system. The validation exercise has also pointed out a number of shortcomings in the forecast system; these will be addressed in the upcoming years of experiments to improve the quality of the ISM prediction.
机译：自2009年以来，艾哈迈达巴德航天应用中心对6月至9月使用社区大气模型（CAM）第3版进行的印度夏季风（ISM）降雨进行了季节性季节性试验。该预报基于许多合奏成员（十CAM），它会分几个阶段生成并定期进行更新。在运行模式下完成5年的实验性季节性预报后，要求对预报系统的总体确认或正确性进行量化，并评估范围以随着时间的推移进一步改进预报（如果有）。由一组20个相同的CAM仿真生成的集合模型气候被视为模型控制仿真。通过将控制仿真作为模型参考来评估预测的性能。预测改进因子显示出积极的改进，与印度陆地的控制实验相比，最近几年的预测值更高。皮尔逊相关系数（PCC），标准差和中心均方根差的泰勒图表示已被用来证明，最好的PCC约为0.74-0.79，已记录在2013年的季节性预测中。实验不同阶段的偏差得分显示出以下事实：ISM降雨预报受低降雨率（低于7毫米/天）的高估影响，但受中等和高降雨率（高于11的低估）的影响毫米/天）。总体而言，分析显示，过去5年ISM预测显着改善。 2009-2013年，由于在预测系统中进行了一些重要的修改。验证工作还指出了预测系统中的许多缺陷;这些将在未来几年的实验中得到解决，以提高ISM预测的质量。

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