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首页> 外文期刊>Pure and Applied Geophysics >New Tsunami Forecast Tools for the French Polynesia Tsunami Warning System Part II: Numerical Modelling and Tsunami Height Estimation
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New Tsunami Forecast Tools for the French Polynesia Tsunami Warning System Part II: Numerical Modelling and Tsunami Height Estimation

机译：法属波利尼西亚海啸预警系统的新海啸预报工具第二部分：数值模型和海啸高度估计

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摘要

Tsunami warning is classically based on two fundamental tools: the first one concerns the source parameters estimations, and the second one is the tsunami amplitude forecast. We presented in the first companion paper how the seismic source parameters are evaluated, and this second article describes the operational aspect and accuracy of the estimation of tsunami height using tsunami numerical modelling on a dedicated supercomputer (2.5 T-flops). The French Polynesian tsunami warning centre developed two new tsunami forecast tools for a tsunami warning context, based on our tsunami propagation numerical model named Taitoko. The first tool, named MERIT, that is very rapid, provides a preliminary forecast distribution of the tsunami amplitude for 30 sites located in French Polynesia in less than 5 min. In this case, the coastal tsunami height distribution is calculated from the numerical simulation of the tsunami amplitude in deep ocean using an empirical transfer function inspired by the Green Law. This method, which does not take into account resonance effects of bays and harbour, is suitable for rapid and first estimation of the tsunami danger. The second method, named COASTER, which uses 21 nested grids of increasing resolutions, gives more information about the coastal tsunami effects about the flow velocities, the arrival time of the maximal amplitude, and the maximal run-up height for five representative sites in 45 min. The historical tsunamis recorded over the last 22 years in French Polynesia have been simulated with these new tools to evaluate the accuracy of these methods. The results of the 23 historical tsunami simulations have been compared to the tide-gauge records of three sites in French Polynesia. The results, which are quite encouraging, shows standard errors of generally less than a 2 factor : the maximal standard error is 0.38 m for the Tahauku Bay of Hiva-Oa (Marquesas islands).
机译：传统上，海啸预警基于两个基本工具：第一个涉及源参数估计，第二个是海啸振幅预报。我们在第一篇伴随论文中介绍了如何评估震源参数，而第二篇文章则介绍了在专用超级计算机（2.5 T触发器）上使用海啸数值模型估算海啸高度的操作方面和准确性。法属波利尼西亚海啸预警中心根据我们的海啸传播数值模型Taitoko，为海啸预警环境开发了两个新的海啸预报工具。第一个名为MERIT的工具非常快速，可以在不到5分钟的时间内对法属波利尼西亚的30个站点提供海啸振幅的初步预测分布。在这种情况下，沿海海啸高度分布是使用格林定律启发的经验传递函数，通过对深海海啸振幅的数值模拟来计算的。该方法不考虑海湾和港口的共振影响，适用于快速和首次估计海啸危险。第二种方法名为COASTER，它使用分辨率提高的21个嵌套网格，可提供有关沿海海啸影响的更多信息，这些影响包括流速，最大振幅的到达时间以及45个5个代表点的最大上升高度。分钟使用这些新工具模拟了法属波利尼西亚过去22年记录的历史海啸，以评估这些方法的准确性。 23次历史海啸模拟的结果已与法属波利尼西亚三个地点的潮汐仪记录进行了比较。结果令人鼓舞，结果显示标准误差通常小于2倍：Hiva-Oa（马克斯萨斯群岛）的Tahauku湾的最大标准误差为0.38 m。

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