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Environmental factors influencing epidemic cholera

机译:影响流行性霍乱的环境因素

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We have concerns with the recent publication by Jutla and colleagues, which aims to describe the environmental factors influencing epidemic cholera.1 Regarding cholera in Haiti, the authors challenged the findings of many studies showing that the epidemic likely originated from the importation of toxi-genic Vibrio cholerae by Nepalese peacekeepers in October 2010.Instead, they attempted to show that environmental conditions conducive to rapid growth and transmission of V. cholerae played a substantial role in epidemic onset. Their hypothesis is based on the claim that increased temperatures and rainfall during the months preceding the epidemic favored the proliferation of V. cholerae in the Haitian waters and its subsequent transmission to the local population1; we believe their claims are based on misinterpretations of our published data and statistical correlations that fail to establish causality.Our field investigation of the Haitian cholera epidemic has clearly indicated that outbreaks started in Meye, near Mirebalais, before subsequently spreading downstream, following the Artibonite River.2 Using a Spearman's rank statistical test, Jutla and colleagues stated that the correlation between cholera cases in Mirebalais and the Lower Artibonite was "very high," thereby inferring that the epidemic started simultaneously in the two locations. According to our report, each of the Lower Artibonite communes displayed a markedly higher correlation with the other Lower Artibonite communes than with Mirebalais. Therefore, we did not report a strong correlation between Mirebalais and the Lower Artibonite communes, as claimed by Jutla and colleagues.1 Nevertheless, correlation analyses are irrelevant to question the chronological progression of the epidemic. Indeed, our field investigation revealed that no suspected cases of cholera or severe diarrhea were reported in the Lower Artibonite before October 19, although the epidemic began on October 14 near Mirebalais.2 Furthermore, an UN-appointed panel of scientists has further confirmed our findings.3
机译:我们关注Jutla及其同事最近的出版物,该出版物的目的是描述影响霍乱流行的环境因素。1关于海地的霍乱,作者对许多研究结果提出质疑,这些研究表明,该流行病可能源于进口毒源尼泊尔维持和平人员于2010年10月感染霍乱弧菌,相反,他们试图证明有利于霍乱弧菌快速生长和传播的环境条件在疫情发作中起着重要作用。他们的假说是基于这样的说法,即流行前几个月的温度和降雨增加,有利于霍乱弧菌在海地水域中扩散并随后传播给当地居民1。我们认为他们的主张是基于对我们已发表的数据的误解和未能建立因果关系的统计相关性。我们对海地霍乱疫情的现场调查清楚地表明,暴发始于米雷伯莱附近的梅耶,随后在青蒿石河之后向下游蔓延.2通过使用Spearman等级统计检验,Jutla及其同事指出,在Mirebalais的霍乱病例与较低的Artibonite病例之间的相关性“很高”,从而推断该流行病在两个地点同时开始。根据我们的报告,每个下青蒿社区与其他下青蒿社区之间的相关性均显着高于Mirebalais。因此,我们并未如Jutla及其同事所声称的那样报道Mirebalais与下亚青石公社之间有很强的相关性。1然而,相关性分析并没有关系到该流行病的时间演变。确实,我们的实地调查表明,尽管10月14日在米雷伯赖斯附近开始流行,但10月19日之前在下青蒿石中未报告霍乱或严重腹泻的可疑病例。2此外,联合国任命的科学家小组进一步证实了我们的发现.3

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