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首页> 外文期刊>The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene >Modeling the impact of variable climatic factors on the crossover of Culex restauns and Culex pipiens (Diptera: culicidae), vectors of West Nile virus in Illinois.
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Modeling the impact of variable climatic factors on the crossover of Culex restauns and Culex pipiens (Diptera: culicidae), vectors of West Nile virus in Illinois.

机译：模拟可变气候因素对伊利诺伊州西尼罗河病毒媒介库蚊和库蚊（Diptera：culicidae）交汇的影响。

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The aim of this study was to model the impact of temperature on the timing of the seasonal shift in relative proportion of Culex restuans Theobald and Culex pipiens L. in Illinois. The temporal pattern of West Nile virus (WNV) and St. Louis encephalitis virus transmission in the midwest exhibits a late summer to early fall peak in activity, which parallels the temporal increase in the abundance of Cx. pipiens. The daily number of egg rafts oviposited by each species has been monitored at multiple surveillance sites in Urbana-Champaign in central Illinois for more than 13 years. The time when the two Culex species are in equal abundance (crossover) varies considerably from year to year. Our investigation of several thermal measures indicated that this variation was related in large part to climatic conditions with warmer (cooler) temperatures correlated to earlier (later) crossover dates. Models based on degree days and the number of days in which the daily maximum temperature exceeded an upper temperature threshold explained more than 60% of the variance in crossover dates. In contrast, models based on the number of days in which the daily minimum temperature exceeded a lower temperature threshold explained no more than 52% of the variance. An evaluation of these models demonstrated that they provide relatively simple and accurate estimates of crossover date from daily temperature data, a necessary component for developing an overall climatic index for the risk of WNV transmission in Illinois.
机译：这项研究的目的是模拟温度对伊利诺伊州库蚊（Culex restuans Theobald）和库蚊（Pilexens L.）相对比例的季节性变化时机的影响。西尼罗河病毒（WNV）和中西部的圣路易斯脑炎病毒传播的时间型态表现出夏末至初秋的活动高峰，这与Cx的数量随时间增加而平行。 pipiens。在伊利诺伊州中部城市厄巴纳-香槟的多个监测点，每个物种每天排卵的蛋筏数量已超过13年。两种库勒克斯物种处于相同丰度（交叉）的时间每年都有很大不同。我们对几种热学方法的研究表明，这种变化在很大程度上与气候条件有关，而较暖（较冷）的温度与较早（较晚）的穿越日期有关。基于度数天和每日最高温度超过温度上限阈值的天数的模型解释了交叉日期变化的60％以上。相反，基于每日最低温度超过较低温度阈值的天数的模型解释的变化不超过52％。对这些模型的评估表明，它们可以从每日温度数据中提供相对简单和准确的交叉日期估算，这是开发伊利诺伊州WNV传播风险的总体气候指数的必要组成部分。

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