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首页> 外文期刊>The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene >Predictions of the epidemiologic impact of introducing a pre-erythrocytic vaccine into the expanded program on immunization in sub-saharan Africa.
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Predictions of the epidemiologic impact of introducing a pre-erythrocytic vaccine into the expanded program on immunization in sub-saharan Africa.

机译：预测在撒哈拉以南非洲扩大免疫规划中引入促红细胞生成前疫苗的流行病学影响。

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摘要

We predict the effects of introduction of a pre-erythrocytic vaccine against Plasmodium falciparum into a malaria-endemic population in Africa. We use a stochastic simulation model that includes components of transmission, parasitology, and clinical epidemiology of malaria and was validated using the results of field trials of the RTS,S/AS02A vaccine. The results suggest that vaccines with efficacy similar to that of RTS,S/AS02A have a substantial impact on malaria morbidity and mortality during the first decade after their introduction, but have negligible effects on malaria transmission at levels of endemicity typical for sub-Saharan Africa. The main benefits result from prevention of morbidity and mortality in the first years of life. Vaccines with very short half-life or low efficacy may have little overall effect on incidence of severe malaria. A similar approach can be used to make predictions for other strategies for deployment of the vaccine and to other types of malaria vaccines and interventions.
机译：我们预测将针对恶性疟原虫的促红细胞前疫苗引入非洲疟疾流行人群的影响。我们使用一种随机模拟模型，该模型包括疟疾的传播，寄生虫学和临床流行病学组成部分，并已通过RTS，S / AS02A疫苗的现场试验结果进行了验证。结果表明，具有与RTS，S / AS02A相似功效的疫苗在引入后的头十年对疟疾发病率和死亡率具有重大影响，但在撒哈拉以南非洲典型的地方性流行水平上对疟疾传播的影响可忽略不计。主要益处来自预防生命的最初几年的发病率和死亡率。半衰期很短或功效很低的疫苗可能对严重疟疾的发病率几乎没有总体影响。可以使用类似的方法来预测疫苗部署的其他策略以及其他类型的疟疾疫苗和干预措施。

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