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首页> 外文期刊>The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene >A geostatistical analysis of the geographic distribution of lymphatic filariasis prevalence in southern India.
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A geostatistical analysis of the geographic distribution of lymphatic filariasis prevalence in southern India.

机译：印度南部淋巴丝虫病患病率地理分布的地统计学分析。

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Gaining a better understanding of the spatial population structure of infectious agents is increasingly recognized as being key to their more effective mapping and to improving knowledge of their overall population dynamics and control. Here, we investigate the spatial structure of bancroftian filariasis distribution using geostatistical methods in an endemic region in Southern India. Analysis of a parasite antigenemia prevalence dataset assembled by sampling 79 villages selected using a World Health Organization (WHO) proposed 25 x 25 km grid sampling procedure in a 225 x 225 km area within this region was compared with that of a corresponding microfilaraemia prevalence dataset assembled by sampling 119 randomly selected villages from a smaller subregion located within the main study area. A major finding from the analysis was that once large-scale spatial trends were removed, the antigenemia data did not show evidence for the existence of any small-scale dependency at the study sampling interval of 25 km. By contrast, analysis of the randomly sampled microfilaraemia data indicated strong spatial contagion in prevalence up to a distance of approximately 6.6 kms, suggesting the likely existence of small spatial patches or foci of transmission in the study area occurring below the sampling scale used for sampling the antigenemia data. While this could indicate differences in parasite spatial population dynamics based on antigenemia versus microfilaraemia data, the result may also suggest that the WHO recommended 25 x 25 km sampling grid for rapid filariasis mapping could have been too coarse a scale to capture and describe the likely local variation in filariasis infection in this endemic location and highlights the need for caution when applying uniform sampling schemes in diverse endemic regions for investigating the spatial pattern of this parasitic infection. The present results, on the other hand, imply that both small-scale spatial processes and large-scale factors may characterize the observed distribution of filariasis in the study region. Our preliminary analysis of a mountain range associated large-scale trend in the antigenemia data suggested that a nonlinear relationship of infection prevalence with elevation might be a factor behind such observed global spatial patterns. We conclude that geostatistic methods can provide a powerful framework for carrying out the empirical investigation and analysis of parasite spatial population structure. This study shows that their successful application, however, will crucially depend on our gaining a more thorough understanding of the appropriate geographic scales at which spatial studies should be carried out.
机译：人们越来越认识到，对传染源的空间种群结构有更好的了解，这是对其进行更有效地作图以及提高对其总体种群动态和控制的了解的关键。在这里，我们使用地统计学方法在印度南部的一个流行地区调查班克罗夫特丝虫病分布的空间结构。通过对使用世界卫生组织（WHO）建议的79个村庄进行抽样而收集的寄生虫抗原血症流行度数据集的分析，将该区域内225 x 225 km区域内25 x 25 km的网格抽样程序与相应的微丝虫病流行度数据集进行了比较通过对位于主要研究区域内较小区域的119个随机选择的村庄进行抽样。该分析的主要发现是，一旦消除了大规模的空间趋势，抗原血症数据就不会显示出在25 km的研究采样间隔内存在任何小规模依赖性的证据。相比之下，对随机抽样的微丝虫病数据的分析表明，流行性在直至约6.6 kms的距离上都具有很强的空间传染性，这表明研究区域中可能存在小的空间斑块或传播病灶，而该区域在用于抽样的地方抗原血症数据。虽然这可能表明基于抗原血症和微丝虫病数据的寄生虫空间种群动态存在差异，但结果也可能表明WHO建议用于快速丝虫病制图的25 x 25 km采样网格太粗略，无法捕获和描述可能的局部该地方病中丝虫病感染的变异，并强调了在不同地方病地区采用统一的抽样方案调查这种寄生虫感染的空间格局时需要谨慎行事。另一方面，本研究结果表明，小范围的空间过程和大范围的因素都可能是研究地区丝虫病分布的特征。我们对抗原血症数据中与山脉相关的大规模趋势的初步分析表明，感染流行与海拔呈非线性关系可能是这种观察到的全球空间格局背后的因素。我们得出结论，地统计学方法可以为进行寄生虫空间种群结构的实证研究和分析提供有力的框架。这项研究表明，它们的成功应用将在很大程度上取决于我们对应该进行空间研究的适当地理尺度的透彻了解。

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