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首页> 外文期刊>The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene >An approach to model the costs and effects of case management of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in sub-saharan Africa.
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An approach to model the costs and effects of case management of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in sub-saharan Africa.

机译：一种模拟撒哈拉以南非洲恶性疟原虫疟疾病例管理成本和效果的方法。

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摘要

An important shortcoming of existing methods for estimating the cost-effectiveness of malaria control interventions is that the incidence of illness and transmission dynamics are assumed to be independent of the case management system. We have developed a model for case management and integrated it into a stochastic simulation of Plasmodium falciparum malaria dynamics. This allows us to predict the incidence of clinical episodes and of mortality while incorporating effects of case management on persistence of parasites and transmission. We make predictions for a range of different transmission intensities in sub-Saharan Africa and simulate a range of case management scenarios with different coverage rates. The model predicts that high treatment rates have a proportionately greater epidemiologic impact at low transmission levels. Further development is needed for models for health-seeking behavior and referral patterns. The current model is a first step towards useful predictions of the epidemiologic and economic consequences of introducing and/or scaling-up of malaria control interventions.
机译：现有的估计疟疾控制干预措施成本效益的方法的一个重要缺陷是，假定疾病的发病率和传播动态与病例管理系统无关。我们已经开发了一个案例管理模型，并将其整合到恶性疟原虫疟疾动态的随机模拟中。这使我们能够预测临床发作的发生率和死亡率，同时结合案例管理对寄生虫和传播持续性的影响。我们对撒哈拉以南非洲地区一系列不同的传播强度做出了预测，并模拟了覆盖率不同的一系列病例管理方案。该模型预测，高治疗率在低传播水平下具有更大的流行病学影响。寻求健康行为和推荐模式的模型需要进一步开发。当前的模型是朝着对引入和/或扩大疟疾控制干预措施的流行病学和经济后果进行有用预测的第一步。

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