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首页> 外文期刊>Canadian Journal of Zoology >Environmental stochasticity: empirical estimates of prairie vole survival with implications for demographic models
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Environmental stochasticity: empirical estimates of prairie vole survival with implications for demographic models

机译：环境随机性：草原田鼠生存的经验估计及其对人口模型的影响

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摘要

A rich theory exists regarding the potential impact of correlations among vital rates on population projections derived from demographic models. However, relatively little is known about the magnitude of correlations among vital rates in natural populations, particularly in mammals. We used 30 years of mark-recapture data from a population of prairie voles (Microtus ochrogaster (Wagner, 1842)) to test for differences in survival among mass classes and sexes, in correlations among vital rates, in correlations between vital rates and environmental factors, and in autocorrelation in vital rates. Estimated monthly survival rates did not differ significantly among mass classes and there were no significant cross-correlations among mass classes. Survivalof large prairie voles increased in mild winters (i.e., warm temperatures and low snowfall). Survival rates of medium and large voles were negatively autocorrelated at time lags of 9-12 months, and survivals of large voles were positively autocorrelatedfor time lags of <3 months. These autocorrelations were not explained by patterns of temperature or precipitation. The observed degree of autocorrelation in vital rates is sufficient to affect projections from demographic models, particularly in short-lived taxa that require seasonal or monthly estimation of vital rates.
机译：关于生命率之间的相关性对根据人口模型得出的人口预测的潜在影响，存在着丰富的理论。然而，人们对自然种群，特别是哺乳动物的生命率之间的相关程度了解甚少。我们使用了30年的大田鼠田鼠（Microtus ochrogaster（Wagner，1842））的标记回收数据来测试质量类别和性别之间的生存差异，生命率之间的相关性，生命率和环境因素之间的相关性，以及生命率的自相关。估计的每月生存率在各阶层之间没有显着差异，并且各阶层之间没有显着的相互关系。在温和的冬季（即温暖的温度和低雪），大草原田鼠的存活率增加。在9-12个月的时滞中大田鼠的成活率呈负自相关，在小于3个月的时滞中大田鼠的成活率呈正自相关。这些自相关没有用温度或降水的模式解释。观察到的生命率自相关程度足以影响人口统计学模型的预测，尤其是在需要季节性或每月估算生命率的短寿命生物群中。

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