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首页> 外文期刊>The Canadian Journal of Neurological Sciences: le Journal Canadien des Sciences Neurologiques >Predicting who will develop dementia in a cohort of Canadian seniors (see comments)
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Predicting who will develop dementia in a cohort of Canadian seniors (see comments)

机译：预测谁将在一群加拿大老年人中发展为痴呆症（见评论）

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OBJECTIVES: We examined whether easily attainable variables were useful in predicting who became demented over a five year period and determined the rates of incident dementia for different categories of mild cognitive impairment. METHODS: This was a cohort study of subjects recruited nationally in a population-based survey of Canadians 65 years and older (the Canadian Study of Health and Aging). After standardized clinical assessments, a subset of subjects (n = 1782) was categorized as not demented at time one. Identical study methods allowed a reassessment of the cognitive status of surviving subjects (n = 892) five years later. RESULTS: Three baseline variables (Modified Mini Mental State (3MS) score, subject's age, and an informant's report of the presence of memory problems) were statistically significant predictors of the development of a dementia. An equation incorporating these three variables had a sensitivity of 79% and a specificity of 56% for predicting dementia among survivors at time two. An equation substituting the MMSE for the 3MS showed similar results. The various categories of mild cognitive impairment examined showed significantly different likelihoods for the subsequent development of a dementia. Some categories with a higher dementia risk were characterized by inclusion criteria requiring neuropsychological test scores that were greater than one standard deviation (SD) below the mean of age based normative data. CONCLUSION: In the absence of extensive laboratory, radiologic or neuropsychological tests, simple variables that can be easily determined in the course of a single clinical encounter were useful in predicting subjects with a higher risk of developing dementia. Attempts to use neuropsychological results to predict the development of dementia should look for significant impairments on age-standardized tests.
机译：目的：我们检查了容易获得的变量是否有助于预测谁在五年内会痴呆，并确定了不同类别的轻度认知障碍的痴呆发生率。方法：这是一项对全国范围内招募的受试者进行的队列研究，研究对象是65岁及65岁以上的加拿大人（加拿大健康与衰老研究）。经过标准化的临床评估后，将一类受试者（n = 1782）分类为在第一时间没有痴呆。相同的研究方法允许五年后重新评估幸存者的认知状态（n = 892）。结果：三个基线变量（改良的迷你精神状态（3MS）评分，受试者的年龄和知情者存在记忆障碍的报告）在统计学上是痴呆症发展的重要预测指标。包含这三个变量的方程式在两个时间的幸存者中预测痴呆的敏感性为79％，特异性为56％。用MMSE代替3MS的方程式显示了相似的结果。检查的各种类别的轻度认知障碍显示出痴呆症随后发生的可能性显着不同。某些患有痴呆症风险较高的类别的特征在于纳入标准，要求神经心理学测试得分低于基于年龄的规范数据平均值的一个标准差（SD）。结论：在缺乏广泛的实验室，放射学或神经心理学测试的情况下，可以在单次临床遭遇中容易确定的简单变量有助于预测罹患痴呆症的较高风险的受试者。尝试使用神经心理学结果来预测痴呆的发展，应在年龄标准化测试中寻找明显的障碍。

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