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首页> 外文期刊>The journal of forensic psychiatry & psychology >The predictive validity of the HCR-20 following clinical implementation: Dsoes it work in practice?
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The predictive validity of the HCR-20 following clinical implementation: Dsoes it work in practice?

机译：HCR-20在临床实施后的预测有效性：在实践中可行吗？

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摘要

This prospective study describes the predictive validity of the Historical Clinical Risk Management-20 Scale (HCR-20) when applied to clinical practice among 109 male mentally disordered offenders in a high secure forensic hospital. Data on violent incidents including reconvictions were collected from multiple sources. The results imply that the implemented HCR-20s did not predict future violence regardless of setting (community vs inpatient) nor time (short vs long term) except for serious incidents. This may indicate that the implemented HCR-20s informed risk management through systematic tailoring of care and treatment plans. Evidence supporting this interpretation was found in a reduction in violent incidents and offending when compared to an earlier study with a similar cohort. Alternatively, the completion of a violence risk assessment by clinicians rather than researchers may have affected the quality of completed assessments. Further research is required to better understand the complex mechanisms underlying the translation of identified risk factors into risk management.
机译：这项前瞻性研究描述了“历史临床风险管理-20量表”（HCR-20）在高度安全的法医医院中对109名男性精神错乱罪犯的临床实践的预测有效性。从多个来源收集了包括定罪在内的暴力事件数据。结果表明，除了严重事件外，已实施的HCR-20都无法预测未来的暴力情况，无论是环境（社区还是住院）还是时间（短期还是长期）。这可能表明已实施的HCR-20通过系统地制定护理和治疗计划来指导风险管理。与较早的类似队列研究相比，发现支持这种解释的证据表明暴力事件和犯罪减少了。或者，由临床医生而非研究人员完成暴力风险评估可能会影响已完成评估的质量。需要进一步研究以更好地理解将已识别的风险因素转换为风险管理的基础的复杂机制。

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