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首页> 外文期刊>The Journal of rheumatology >Prevalence of flare and influence of demographic and serologic factors on flare risk in systemic lupus erythematosus: a prospective study.
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Prevalence of flare and influence of demographic and serologic factors on flare risk in systemic lupus erythematosus: a prospective study.

机译：耀斑的流行以及人口统计学和血清学因素对系统性红斑狼疮耀斑危险的影响：一项前瞻性研究。

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OBJECTIVE: We determined the prevalence of and risk factors for British Isles Lupus Activity Group (BILAG) flare in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). METHODS: We followed 299 patients for 1 year with the BILAG scores calculated using British Lupus Integrated Prospective System software and confirmed with manual calculation. RESULTS: "A" flares occurred at a rate of 0.254/year, "B" flares 1.637/year, and A or B flares 1.765/year. The most common A flares were renal and mucocutaneous. The most common B flares were hematologic, renal, mucocutaneous, and musculoskeletal. Risk factors for a later A or B flare in the hematological system included: low C3 (p < 0.0001), low C4 (p = 0.0004), and positive anti-double-stranded (ds)DNA (p = 0.003); in the mucocutaneous system: low C3 (p = 0.02) and low C4 (p = 0.0004); and in the renal system: low C3 (p = 0.02) and low C4 (p = 0.02). In a stepwise regression model, only ethnicity (p = 0.02) and low C4 (p = 0.0002) remained as independent predictors of later A or 2B flares. CONCLUSION: The organ system distribution of A and B flares is very different, with A flares more common in renal and mucocutaneous, and B flares more common in hematologic and renal systems. A or 2B flares are significantly more common in African Americans and in patients with abnormal serologies (low C3, low C4, or high anti-dsDNA). If flare is an outcome in an SLE clinical trial, these factors must be balanced by taking them into account at baseline in terms of randomization, or by statistical adjustment in final analyses.
机译：目的：我们确定了系统性红斑狼疮（SLE）患者的不列颠群岛红斑狼疮活动组（BILAG）耀斑的患病率和危险因素。方法：我们对299例患者进行了为期1年的BILAG评分，这些评分是使用英国狼疮综合预测系统软件计算的，并通过手动计算进行了确认。结果：“ A”爆发的发生率为0.254 /年，“ B”爆发的发生率为1.637 /年，A或B爆发的发生率为1.765 /年。最常见的A耀斑是肾脏和粘膜皮肤。最常见的B耀斑是血液学，肾病，粘膜皮肤病和肌肉骨骼疾病。血液系统中随后发生A或B爆发的危险因素包括：低C3（p <0.0001），低C4（p = 0.0004）和抗双链（ds）DNA阳性（p = 0.003）;在粘膜皮肤系统中：低C3（p = 0.02）和低C4（p = 0.0004）;在肾脏系统中：低C3（p = 0.02）和低C4（p = 0.02）。在逐步回归模型中，仅种族（p = 0.02）和低C4（p = 0.0002）保留为以后A或2B耀斑的独立预测因子。结论：A和B耀斑的器官系统分布非常不同，其中A耀斑在肾脏和皮肤粘膜中较常见，而B耀斑在血液和肾脏系统中较常见。 A或2B耀斑在非裔美国人和血清学异常（低C3，低C4或高抗dsDNA）的患者中更为常见。如果耀斑是SLE临床试验的结果，则必须通过在基线方面将它们考虑为随机因素或在最终分析中进行统计调整来平衡这些因素。

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