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首页> 外文期刊>Theoretical Population Biology >Sequential decision-making in a variable environment: modeling elk movement in Yellowstone National Park as a dynamic game
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Sequential decision-making in a variable environment: modeling elk movement in Yellowstone National Park as a dynamic game

机译：可变环境中的顺序决策：将黄石国家公园的麋鹿运动建模为动态游戏

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摘要

We develop a suite of models with varying complexity to predict elk movement behavior during the winter on the Northern Range of Yellowstone National Park (YNP). The models range from a simple representation of optimal patch choice to a dynamic game, and we show how the underlying theory in each is related by the presence or absence of state- and frequency-dependence. We compare predictions from each of the models for three variables that are of basic and applied interest: elk survival, aggregation, and use of habitat outside YNP. Our results suggest that despite low overall forage depletion in the winter, frequency-dependence is crucial to the predictions for elk movement and distribution. Furthermore, frequency-dependence interacts with mass-dependence in the predicted outcome of elk decision-making. We use these results to show how models that treat single movement decisions in isolation from the seasonal sequence of decisions are insufficient to capture landscape scale behavior.
机译：我们开发了一套具有不同复杂度的模型，以预测冬季黄石国家公园（YNP）北部麋鹿的移动行为。这些模型包括从最佳补丁选择的简单表示到动态博弈，我们展示了每种模型中的基础理论如何与状态和频率依赖性的存在或不存在相关联。我们比较了每个模型对三个具有基本和应用意义的变量的预测：麋鹿的生存，聚集和YNP以外的栖息地的使用。我们的结果表明，尽管冬季总草料消耗量较低，但频率依赖性对于预测麋鹿的活动和分布至关重要。此外，在麋鹿决策的预测结果中，频率依赖性与质量依赖性相互作用。我们使用这些结果来显示将单个运动决策与决策的季节性序列隔离开来的模型如何不足以捕获景观尺度行为。

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