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首页> 外文期刊>The Review of Economic Studies >HIV/AIDS-related Expectations and Risky Sexual Behaviour in Malawi
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HIV/AIDS-related Expectations and Risky Sexual Behaviour in Malawi

机译：马拉维与艾滋病毒/艾滋病相关的期望和危险的性行为

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摘要

We use probabilistic expectations data elicited from survey respondents in rural Malawi to investigate how risky sexual behaviour may be influenced by individuals' expectations about survival, and future HIV status, which in turn depend on the perceived impact of HIV/AIDS on survival, expectations about own and partner's current HIV status, and expectations about HIV transmission rates. Subjective expectations, in particular about mortality risk but not the risk of living with HIV, play an important role in determining the decision to have multiple sexual partners. Using our estimated parameters, we simulate the impact of various policies that would influence expectations. An information campaign on mortality risk would decrease risky sexual behaviour on average, whereas an information campaign on HIV transmission risks, which tend to be overestimated by respondents, would actually increase risky behaviour. Also, the expansion of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) treatments to all individuals infected with HIV would increase risky sexual behaviour for a quarter of the HIV-negative individuals or those who have not been tested because they are aware that ART increases life expectancy, and thus reduces the cost of becoming HIV positive.
机译：我们使用从马拉维农村受访者那里获得的概率期望数据来调查个人对生存的期望以及未来的HIV状况如何影响危险的性行为，而这又取决于HIV / AIDS对生存的预期影响，拥有和伴侣当前的艾滋病毒状况，以及对艾滋病毒传播率的期望。主观期望，特别是关于死亡风险而不是艾滋病毒感染风险的主观期望，在决定拥有多个性伴侣的决定中起着重要作用。使用我们估计的参数，我们模拟可能影响预期的各种政策的影响。关于死亡风险的信息运动将平均降低危险的性行为，而关于艾滋病毒传播风险的信息运动（往往被受访者高估）实际上会增加危险的行为。此外，将抗逆转录病毒疗法（ART）的治疗范围扩大到所有感染HIV的个体，将使四分之一的HIV阴性个体或未经测试的人的危险性行为增加，因为他们知道ART可以延长预期寿命，从而降低了HIV阳性的成本。

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